Mimi Ho @KoraTrades: "𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰  This is the last..."

Australia

𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰  This is the last big data week of the year and it could decide whether we get a Santa rally. A Santa rally is mostly mechanical. After a strong year, investment funds and pension funds often reinvest profits before year end. That buying can push markets higher and also as traders try to front run it. Historically, the $SPX500 has seen a Santa rally about 70% of the time, so it happens more often than not. BTC has still closed green in around 60%-70% of years, especially when liquidity is supportive. We did not get one last year. A very hawkish Powell in December 2024 pushed BTC down roughly 15% post FOMC which stopped any year end momentum. This week will help show whether conditions are different this time.   𝐓𝐋𝐃𝐑 is at the end but I recommend reading it through for context. 🗓️ 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 & 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤:  ▪️ US NonFarm Payrolls (NFP): The Fed is watching jobs closely, so this can have a signifiant impact ▪️ US CPI (Inflation) ▪️ VIX options expiry: can increase volatility as traders hedge or unwind positions ▪️ US stock options expiry: Could lead to sharp moves or reversals as hedges are closed ▪️ Bank of England rate decision: A 25bps cut is expected ▪️ ECB rate decision: Rates are expected to remain unchanged ▪️ Bank of Japan rate decision: Markets are prepared for a potential hike 📌 𝐌𝐲 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰   Keep in mind that timeframes are estimates. Macro decides the pace.  $BTC I focus on BTC mostly as it currently is dictating the direction of the crypto market.  𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦: The 95k region is still one to be tested and BTC never made it there last week. We saw a rally into FOMC and a pullback afterwards. Uncertainty still lingers in many areas that will take time to list out (AI, fiscal, 2026 rate cut expectations, economy health, etc).  𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦: The bigger trend hasn’t changed. At some point momentum will return, whether it’s into Christmas or early next year. We still have rate cuts, inflation prints and other catalysts lined up including the much anticipated Clarity Act. See my post about this here etoro.tw/45aW1If 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 Looking at charts and structure alone, BTC is technically in a bear market. If this continues, this is my base case: → A relief rally back above 100k. First battle zone is still 95k-100k. If that clears, I’m watching 112k-116k where there’s a lot of liquidity sitting.  → A pullback into the 60k-70k region. I don’t see a deep flush below that unless we get a real macro shock.  → A shorter and less severe bear market. Diminishing ROI each cycle suggests less drawdown, potentially bottoming around Q1 2026 before accumulation and the next leg up.  𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 Zooming out, there’s still a solid macro case for continuation: → This cycle feels off. Price action hasn’t followed the usual 4 year script  → Liquidity has been tight. QT and a contracting ISM cycle explain why retail never really showed up.  → BTC has tracked the ISM cycle closely, which raises the question of whether liquidity matters more than halving timing this time around.  → Sentiment is heavily bearish, which could set up contrarian moves  → QT ending + ETFs + legislation + rate cuts  → There’s a large liquidation cluster above price around 130k on higher timeframe heat maps, meaning a lot of liquidity is still stacked overhead 𝐃𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 BTC dominance is looking bearish and $ETH dominance is looking bullish = great for ETH and potentially alts. Short term we could see a fall in BTC dominance and liquidity flow out of BTC to alts. A reminder that if BTC does print a lower high, it will be dominances (BTC.D, ETH.D, stablecoin dominance) that will signal how alts will perform. The BTC top could be in but doesn’t necessarily mean that some alts can’t still rally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐈’𝐦 𝐝𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 → Watching for strength or weakness in the relief rally to come  → Derisking by closing positions into the bounce while positioning for both outcomes (bull/bear) → Continue to reassess as macro and data unfolds  → Ready to accumulate more if the bear case plays out → Diversifying the portfolio with defensive, tech, ETFs as well as crypto 📍𝐓𝐋𝐃𝐑 → This is the final major data week and likely decides whether we get a Santa rally → Santa rallies are common in equities but still favourable for BTC and crypto → Short term BTC is rangebound, 95k remains key first → Bear case allows for a relief rally above 100k before a deeper pullback → Bull case rests on improving liquidity, sentiment extremes and upcoming catalysts → Dominances suggest ETH and selective alts could outperform even if BTC stalls → I’m derisking into strength, staying flexible and ready to accumulate if bear case plays out  Have a great week ahead! 👩🏻‍💻☕️ $XRP $HBAR $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (The above is my opinion and not financial advice)

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SPX500

BTC

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XRP

HBAR

NVDA

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