❌ Stay calm this is not the end of the world.
Oil has just broken above $100. Right now it’s trading at $104.
+66% in one month.
The biggest energy shock since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
And Trump has just posted this:
“The price of oil will drop rapidly once the Iranian nuclear threat is destroyed. It’s a small price to pay for global security.”
With oil at $104, U.S. inflation which was running around 2.4% could move closer to 3.5% if this situation lasts for several weeks.
The Fed won’t cut rates. Mortgage rates won’t fall. The American consumer ends up paying more at the pump than during the Biden administration.
And the midterm elections are approaching.
That’s why Trump has the strongest incentive to end this situation as quickly as possible. Not because of the markets. Not because of the global economy. Because of his political survival.
Every day oil stays around $100 costs him votes.
Paradoxically, that’s the best signal that this situation is unlikely to last too long.
Volatility, noise, fear… even he is telling us.
This will not drag on for long. Stay calm.
None of us likes this uncertainty, but the work is already done.
Roberto Chamorro
$NSDQ100$SPX500$OIL
$EUROOIL
$GOLD... Show More
The only silver lining in this is that it costs Trump votes, and even though my portfolio will suffer, it may be a price worth paying. 8647... Show More
I dont think its as simple as that. Trump thinks he can do as he pleases and can then pull the plug when he wants. This time, it's Iran that will decide when to pull the plug.... Show More
Maybe it's a good idea to study what happened to SPX in 1973 when the oil embargo started (October of 1973). Ofcourse that doesn't mean the outcome will be the same but unfortunately there are many evidences that we are in stage 5 cycle where commodities are up and stocks down. ... Show More
Nice recap! The situation is quite messy. Now we already see the immediate effect on gasoline prices, spot energy cost (both domestic and industrial) and consumers discretionary (booking a flight now is ridiculous). The ripple effect will reach consumer goods soon. We can forget about rate cuts for a... Show More
Good observation. The American public in general don't support it either, as he's jumped from one reason to another for why he started it. Also both sides, but definitely Iran will run out of missiles to launch relatively quickly. ... Show More
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Sun Apr 19 2026 06:22:51 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
