Loic Le Maho @LoicInv: "$SILVER keeps doing its..."

France

$SILVER keeps doing its up and down dance and we are back near a local low. performance of the book is essentially flat since the war in Iran. Nothing new and the investment rationale has not changed one bit. Kevin Warsh just took office as the new Fed chairman, and long-term yields are sitting close to their highs. Yet none of this is what the market looks at. The only thing that matters to everyone right now is the AI trade. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), chips, data centers, that is the entire conversation. The most telling move this month : $MSTR (Strategy Inc) (Strategy) sold $BTC for the very first time. After years of accumulating no matter the price, they are now sellers. To me this is a signal that capital is quietly leaving crypto to get ready for the current fancy trade : the AI and chips, and the SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic type private bets. On Iran, the so-called ceasefire is a ceasefire in name only. The fighting never really stopped. What is interesting market-wise is the asymmetry : Iran maintains a permanent low-grade pressure that costs them almost nothing, while the defenders (the US and its Gulf allies) have to stay in a permanent war footing, which is by far the most expensive posture that exists. The Strait of Hormuz, one fifth of the world's oil, stays a hostage. That is a structural risk premium on energy that does not disappear just because headlines go quiet. Iran is in a position of strength here. On our side nothing changes even though we came back down on $SILVER , by far the largest position of the book. Real rates are negative and near their multi-year lows, inflation is climbing, and we need silver for both AI and the energy transition. It is only a matter of time until the next leg up. We climbed to 88USD/ounce 2 weeks ago to go down almost immediately. The market keeps going up and down on the hot and cold blown by Trump on Iran, so there are very few clean opportunities right now to play the round trips. I stay patient and keep the rationale unchanged : money printing, deficits, negative real rates. Same trade as always.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.