Yun Jui Tsai @YunRueiTsai: "@YunRueiTsai 2026 YTD Return: +42.95% Return 2Y..."

Taiwan

@YunRueiTsai 2026 YTD Return: +42.95% Return 2Y :210.37% My $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) valuation model shows: FY2026 EPS: about $73.09 Current stock price: about $1,134 FY2026 P/E: about 15.5x FY2027 EPS estimate: about $136 FY2027 P/E: about 8.3x Using FY2027 EPS of $136 × 11.5x P/E, the target price is about $1,564. On the surface, MU looks cheap. But the biggest risk is simple: Is this EPS the peak, or the new normal? That is the P/E trap in memory stocks. Cyclical stocks often look most dangerous when EPS explodes and P/E looks very low. Peter Lynch’s idea is important here: Cyclical stocks must be viewed differently. High P/E can appear near the bottom. Low P/E can appear near the peak. So MU should not be judged only by forward P/E. The real key is margin sustainability. If MU can maintain: Gross margin above 80% High operating margin Tight HBM / DRAM / NAND supply into 2027–2028 Then the stock still has room for re-rating. But if high margins are only a short-term peak, the market may only give MU 8–10x peak EPS, and the stock could correct. MU is not cheap just because FY2027 P/E looks low. It is cheap only if high margins can last. If they can, the stock may keep growing. If they cannot, low P/E could be the trap. $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) $NSDQ100 $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) $SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) $SPX500 $OIL $WDC (Western Digital Corporation)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.