Christian Rabens @ChristianRabens: "Hello copiers and followers, another month..."

Germany

Edited

Hello copiers and followers, another month is coming to an end and it is the first one to close in red after there have been several months now with a positive development for our portfolio. In the last month´s post I already said that this is no one way street and a correction had become nearly overdue, so no real surprises here and indeed it rather should be seen healthy and welcome as markets have the possibility to cool down a bit. Even further declines should be no surprise as valuations are still sky high in many cases, but we have to see what "the market" is going to do with the results of the current earnings season and what economical and geopolitical improvements or deteriorations are doing with the overall positioning and market expectations. When looking at the gold price we finally have the correction I expected in my last post, but at the end of Septemeber I still was too early with that point, fair enough. Although we recently had (the beginning of) a sharp correction, we now still are higher than the point where I thought that a decline might happen. I recurrently wonder how far spikes can rise in a mania, even though it should not surprise me anymore as I already have seen it a couple of times. It teaches me once again, that timing the market is quite hard (I do not want to say impossible, as there are people using a broad toolbox who want to do exactly that and seemingly also having success) But still it remains an interesting point of psychological behavior when optimism becomes thrill and euphoria and neutral or pessimistic positioning changes to FOMO, completely shut down the possibility of staying rational and make calm and balanced decisions. The same applies for what happens when the market declines and is going to make some deeper corrections. Anxiety, panic and anger sets in, trust in the own capabilities fades and doubts are the dominating thoughts, finally resulting in surrender. Unfortunately no one is immune to what our head is doing there. In my opinion to control those feelings or at least minor the impact of them is the most important and also hardest training we have to do when opening the door to investing money at the financial markets and being exposed to those psychological games. I recently had an interesting conversation when I got asked if now is a good entry point for buying physical Gold because it has fallen so much. First of all I said what you can read at the bottom after Disclaimer:. Then I told him that 2022 or 2023 was a good point, even 2024 was okay, but, from a short term perspective, now I would be cautious and that he has to make up his mind what his aim is on buying gold. I asked: "Is it just because it grew that much and obviously is a good thing to buy to make easy fast money or do you want to have it for the long run, because Gold historically is a store of value and an alternative to paper money that loses value year over year?" But the most important question was how he would handle a situation where the development is not how he expects and the correction continues and is from deeper nature. Seeing the investment losing in value can be a real mental burden and he has to have a plan what he is doing to get along with that psychological situation. I also told him what I am going to do when I see a probable good entry point and want to minimize the impact of the overcoming feelings, especially the negative ones. I think about the amount I want to invest and divide it in at least two, rather three parts and invest the first amount. If it rises from that point, I am happy to already being invested and the risk for FOMO is less intense. If it falls from that point instead, I am not that influenced by panic as I rather can be happy to have saved an amount that I can invest on an even better/lower entry point. For me it is a simple trick to lower the exposure to problematic feelings that lead to wrong decisions. After that story, I hope it also helps some of you, just a few concluding remarks regarding the portfolio where nothing extraordinary happened since last month. I did realize some profits from few of our positions in $GOLD and $SILVER near the latest top and recently stocked up our $PYPL (PayPal Holdings) position after its better than expected earnings and the announcement of paying its first dividend. By The way, in conclusion to the psychology part above, the PayPal chart looks to me quite similar to the common chart of "Psychology of a market cycle" ;-) I wish you all the best. Greetings, Christian Disclaimer: All mentioned is only my personal opinion and is clearly no investment advice. $NSDQ100 $GER40

5 Mentioned

GOLD

SILVER

PYPL

PayPal Holdings

NSDQ100

GER40

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