Andre Cruz Nogueira @Andre031988: "🆕 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼..."

Andorra

🆕 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝘆 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗦𝗢𝗦 𝗥𝘂𝗹𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 (𝗦𝗰𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲–𝗢’𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝗻–𝗦𝗮𝗵𝗺-𝘀𝘁𝘆𝗹𝗲) I’ve added a new economic cycle indicator to my dashboard based on weekly U.S. unemployment insurance claims data, following the framework introduced by John O’Trakoun and Adam Scavette (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, February 2025). The SOS Rule extends the logic of the Sahm Rule by using weekly administrative data instead of monthly survey-based unemployment figures. 🔎 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 • Weekly unemployment insurance claims tend to react very quickly when labor market conditions deteriorate, as layoffs translate almost immediately into benefit filings. • Because the data is administrative, it may be more robust than survey-based indicators, especially given rising survey nonresponse rates. • Higher-frequency data allows for earlier detection of sustained labor market stress compared to traditional monthly indicators. The SOS Rule triggers when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises more than 0.20 percentage points above its lowest level over the past 52 weeks, helping filter out short-term noise. According to the authors, this framework correctly signaled all seven U.S. recessions since 1971 in their historical analysis, although this does not guarantee future performance. 📊 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗜 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗜𝘁 • As an early warning signal of stress in the U.S. labor market. • As a complementary tool alongside the Sahm Rule and other macro indicators when evaluating recession risk. • To improve risk awareness across the economic cycle, not to time markets. This is not a buy or sell signal. It is a macro risk-monitoring tool within a broader quantitative framework. 🆓 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲 During the launch phase, access to this dashboard is free. It will remain forever free for my copiers as part of a transparent, long-term approach. More details on the full framework and indicators: 👉 dbullintelligence.pro Source paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond): 👉 www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2025/eb_25-07 ⚠️ 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research or consult a qualified professional. $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $GOLD