Devon Toogood
Devon Toogood
Australia
4mo
New position: Kaspi.kz ($KSPI) — now 7% of the portfolio. I've been working on this one for a while and finally pulled the trigger. Kaspi is a super-app in Kazakhstan — payments, fintech, and a marketplace all inside one app — and it's reached a level of dominance I rarely see. Roughly three quarters of the entire country uses it every month, 68% of them daily. It's not just a fintech or a bank at this point; it's closer to national digital infrastructure. Bills, transfers, shopping, taxes, government services, even driver's licence renewals all run through it. Why I bought: • ~8% dividend yield • ~40% revenue and ~20% net income CAGR in USD (2021–2025) • Trading at just 7.1x trailing P/E and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA on current values • No shareholder dilution — the comp plan is structured to avoid issuing new shares The market sold the stock off hard (roughly 50% from its highs) over the company's expansion into Türkiye, where it acquired e-commerce platform Hepsiburada and is building out a fintech arm. I think that's an overreaction. The entire Türkiye deployment is around $1.6B — less than a single year of net income — and the company has already resumed its dividend. The stock is still priced as if the dividend cut was permanent and the Türkiye spend is open-ended. Neither is true. How I think about it: the downside is protected by the Kazakhstan business on its own. The upside — a successful Türkiye expansion — is something the market is currently pricing at close to zero. Current market cap is around $17B; I think the business is worth $30–35B. Margin of safety.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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