Dear all,
First of all, happy new year! As we close out 2024, I want to reflect on what has been an exceptional year for my portfolio and share thoughts on the journey ahead.
๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐
This year, the portfolio achieved an annual return of +45%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which delivered approximately +14%. Over the last five years, the portfolio delivered a cumulative return of 169%, achieving my goal of doubling the initial investment and beating the S&P 500's return of around 85%. Since its inception on January 1, 2019, the portfolioโs total return stands at 282%, compared to the S&P 500โs approximate return of 115%.
The performance reflects a disciplined approach to investing, grounded in identifying innovative companies with strong scalability and the ability to compound returns over time. While market turbulence is inevitable, the strategy remains focused on long-term goals.
The portfolioโs risk score stayed steady at 4 throughout the yearโa great balance of growth and stability, reflecting my focus on managing risk while capturing upside opportunities.
๐ ๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐
My strategy focuses on identifying companies with the potential to scale exponentially, leveraging unique market positions and transformative trends like AI, digitalization, and global connectivity. Staying invested, letting compounding work, and rebalancing periodically are key principles.
๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
Heading into 2025, my target allocation focuses on high-growth companies in technology, e-commerce, and digital advertising, with smaller allocations to defensive and cash-like positions. Fine-tuning allocation among existing positions will remain a priority.
๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ (๐ช๐ถ๐น๐ฑ) ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ
Letโs have some fun as we look ahead! Here are four bold and wild predictions for 2025 for some of the companies in the portfolio:
1. Google ($GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A)): One of Google's moonshot projects achieves a breakthrough that positions it as a larger business unit by market cap than their core Google search business.
2. Mercado Libre ($MELI (MercadoLibre)): Mercado Libre breaks out of its South and Latin American markets and goes global, becoming a dominant e-commerce force worldwide.
3. Netflix ($NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)): Netflix continues grinding, reaching over 400 million subscribers globally by 2025. As they expand, they make a major push into live sports, revolutionizing this category.
4. Nvidia ($NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)): Nvidia experiences breakthrough revenue growth exceeding usd500 billion in the automotive sector and announces the next generation of GPUs after Blackwell, featuring exponential capabilities of 5x over Blackwell.
Vote in the poll for the prediction you would like most to see!
๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ผ๐-๐จ๐ฝ ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐
Hereโs how my 2022 predictions materialized by the end of 2022 and their status at the close of 2024:
Original 2022 etoro post: etoro.tw/4h9d2Xq
1. Shopify doubling and hitting $240 (post-split): By 2022, Shopify hadnโt reached the target, but 2024 saw significant growth as it scaled AI-powered tools. While the target wasnโt fully met, Shopify remains a strong performer.
2. Two portfolio companies being acquired: This didnโt materialize by 2022 or 2024.
3. Netflix entering live sports: Netflix didnโt enter live sports by 2022, but by 2024, it successfully expanded with innovative streaming deals, boosting subscribers and revenues.
4. Nvidia partnering on self-driving cars: By 2022, Nvidia had partnerships, but 2024 saw its automotive revenue exceed $200B, supported by Blackwell GPUs.
5. Unity becoming a top 5 portfolio position: Unity didnโt achieve this by 2022, but by 2024, it became a top 5 position due to growth in gaming and real-time 3D solutions.
Reflecting on these predictions highlights the importance of patience and long-term thinking in investing.
๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ
The past five years demonstrate the power of staying the course, even during volatility. While 2024โs results were a highlight, my focus remains on the future. Iโm confident that innovation and resilience will drive continued success.
Thank you for following along. Letโs make 2025 extraordinary!
Happy investing,
Rasmus
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