Celestino Brunetti @celesh: "Dear copiers, investors and followers, In..."

Italy

Dear copiers, investors and followers, In this Recap & Radar I'll briefly cover what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio. The truce broke The fragile arrangement I have been watching has now fallen apart. Over the past week the US and Iran traded repeated strikes, Trump declared the ceasefire over, and this weekend he reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian shipping, demanding a 20 percent fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says the Strait is closed until further notice. US Central Command disputes that and says traffic is flowing. The two sides cannot even agree on whether the waterway is open, which tells you how far the interim deal has broken down. $OIL snapped back Oil reversed hard. Brent pushed toward 80 and WTI toward 75, unwinding most of the calm that had built up when the market assumed normalisation. Transits through Hormuz collapsed again, with only a handful of vessels crossing over the weekend against 18 to 22 a day earlier this month. This is the exact risk I flagged when prices were falling: the market had priced a best case, and the re-escalation exposed how thin that assumption was. That said, both benchmarks remain well below their wartime highs above 100, and Trump is publicly predicting prices will drop again. For my energy exposure ($ENI.MI, $SHEL.L (Shell PLC), $BP.L (BP), $TTE.PA (TotalEnergies SE)) this is a return of the risk premium, not a new supply shock yet. A crack in the AI trade Away from oil, something else caught my eye. Last week the Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix made its Nasdaq debut, jumping about 13 percent on the first day on strong appetite for AI linked chips. Then came the reversal. On Monday the stock fell more than 15 percent in Seoul, its worst day on record, dragging the Korean market down about 9 percent into bear territory. The trigger was profit taking, but the read-through is broader: investors are starting to question the stretched valuations in the AI chip complex and are rotating away from high-beta tech. It is one session, not a trend, but it is worth watching as a sentiment signal. The week ahead This is a heavy week. June CPI lands on Tuesday, and with oil turning back up the inflation print carries more weight than usual. The same day, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress for the first time, so his tone on rates will move markets. Second quarter earnings season also opens with the big banks. An oil driven inflation scare colliding with a Fed that has already turned hawkish is the uncomfortable combination here. I stay cautious and let the data set the direction. Ad maiora This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to take on risk. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.