๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ - ๐ฏ๐๐น๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐ผ๐ป?
Good evening copiers! Weโre approaching the end of the first half of the year and itโs certainly been an eventful one. With trade wars and global unrest being consistently in the headlines, you could probably be forgiven for wondering why the $SPX500 is a whisker away from a new all-time high. It hasnโt been an easy road to this point though, with the index almost entering bear market territory at the height of the tariff pandemonium. Uncomfortable bond yield movement was enough for Trump to dampen down the rhetoric on tariffs, including introducing a 90-day pause. Investors seemed to be seeing Trump as willing to back down to market pressure and quickly snapped up stocks, pushing prices back up.
Since the start of the 90-day pause on tariffs, weโve had several major events, including the US bombing of Iran in recent weeks. Despite this, markets have been particularly resilient to bad news and simultaneously reacted very strongly to any positive news. This indicates there is a strong desire to own stocks maybe due to an expectation that Trump will not allow the market to fall too much. This is associated with a high level of risk but could pay off based on Trumpโs actions so far.
With the end of the 90-day pause on tariffs, the first major test for the bulls is coming up. Technically the pause ends on the 9th of July, which is also the date by which Trump said he would have made 90 trade deals. So far we havenโt seen much by way of trade deals in the news other than the one made with the UK a few weeks ago. What happens next is anyoneโs guess. We may see another pause on higher tariffs but it's equally possible that we see higher tariffs imposed on some of the USโ trade partners. For such an unpredictable scenario, I believe the logical strategy is to hold off from trying to trade the event and focus on the larger picture. If we start to get a hint that tariffs are going to be dropped, itโs probably time to start adding to long-term positions. My feeling though is that thereโs a good chance we see an escalation in tariffs used as a bargaining strategy by Trump since he has a bit of wiggle room with investors currently being relatively calm. If that does happen, we will likely see some prices trimmed, which will be a good opportunity to deploy some cash reserves as things begin to calm.
As always, thanks for reading and if you have any questions, please leave them below!
Kieran
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-trade-japan-letter-tariffs-b2779167.html... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Everything gets destroyed against gold going forward. My portfolio is already outperforming...... Show More
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Sat Oct 17 2026 18:11:16 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
