Veronika Tykhonova @Wise_woman: "𝙔𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 “𝙩𝙝𝙚..."

Poland

Edited

𝙔𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 “𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙫𝙚” — 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙬𝙚 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙧𝙮? One way to measure this is through the Shiller P/E ratio, also known as CAPE. It compares stock prices to average earnings over the past 10 years — smoothing out short-term noise. Right now, CAPE is hovering near 40, close to where it was during the dot-com bubble, and more than twice the long-term average. Other valuation indicators like forward P/E, price-to-sales, and Buffett’s market cap-to-GDP ratio also suggest that markets are richly priced. But here’s the important part: these signals don’t predict what will happen next week or next month. Instead, they’re useful for shaping expectations over the next 10 years. Historically, investing at high valuations has often meant lower long-term returns — not an immediate crash. Still, no one knows when the next correction or crash might come. Markets can stay overvalued for years — or they can pull back sharply with little warning. That’s why I prefer to stay invested, but with a clear focus on risk and long-term perspective. I stick to a cautious, steady strategy. I’m not trying to predict the next move. I focus on holding quality assets, staying diversified, and thinking in decades, not days. Here’s where I currently stand: long-term bonds ($TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ), BLV), gold ($GLD (SPDR Gold)), and a mix of US growth and value equities (META, QQQ, VOOV). I’m also hedged with positions like SQQQ and short USD/JPY, while holding selective international exposure China and EU. I’m watching Europe more closely. Recent US–EU trade news suggests tariffs may have less impact than expected — possibly opening up opportunities in overlooked sectors. Are you investing with the next quarter in mind, or the next decade?

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