Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "A note to my copiers..."

Finland

A note to my copiers and followers If you copy me, this week probably looked ugly on your screen. Even though portfolio grew +0.9%. Let me show you what I was actually looking at. Stocks fell, oil pushed back toward $100 on the Iran conflict, and everyone started talking about an AI bubble again. In the same five days, the companies I hold reported some of their best quarters ever. That gap is the whole story. $GOOG (Alphabet) great numbers, angry market - Revenue up 24% - Cloud grew 82%, with $514 billion of contracts already signed, not Monopoly money. - Roughly $160 billion in profit over the last twelve months, the most profitable company in the world The stock fell 7% anyway 🤷🏻‍♂️ The reason was spending. Google raised its capex plan to $195-205 billion and said something more interesting than the number itself. They cannot build fast enough. They will rent capacity from competitors just to keep up with demand. Yes, with all the spendings and expansions, they CAN NOT BUILD FAST ENOUGH. My view on that spending is simple. It is not optional. The people running Google and Microsoft see their own demand data every day. No analyst on Wall Street has that view. If one of them slows down to protect margins this year, someone else spends instead and takes the position. This is the AI arms race. They are not buying a better quarter. They are buying the right to still matter in 2030. I added to Google on the drop, because I believe in the long term story. $GEV (GE Vernova LLC) the same story, from the power side - Orders up 88% - Backlog now $176 billion - Gas turbine orders jumped from 100 GW to 116 GW - Free cash flow of $5.1 billion in three months, more than all of 2025 Wind stayed weak, and I am fine with that. When a data center needs power in the next few years, gas turbines are what actually gets built. Nuclear - too long. Renewables, well we love it but it’s not scaling fast enough. I added here too. The rest of the week, briefly $TXN (Texas Instruments Inc) grew 23% and doubled its data center revenue. Intel posted its fastest growth since 2011 and said it cannot make enough chips. $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) set a revenue record and missed badly on profit. However, I like the compute story as well. For now I just hold without extra additions. About that memory scare Last week a Chinese AI model release was supposed to make memory dramatically cheaper and kill demand for chips. Within days it was already clear there was nothing structural there. Cheaper computing has never reduced total demand for computing. It just lets more people afford it. So $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) reclaimed $1000 Next week brings the Fed on Wednesday, plus $MSFT (Microsoft) and $META (Meta Platforms Inc) the same evening. If the market punishes Microsoft for building infrastructure the way it punished Google, I will do exactly what I did this week. One last thing I work inside enterprise software. What I see every day is adoption speeding up, not slowing down. I don’t need to read analyst to understand that AI adoption is growing in the enterprise. I’m not talking about retail customers with freemium or $20 subscriptions. I’m talking about professionals with budgets $500-$1500 per employee like software engineer and companies spending millions on AI. Nobody in this industry is planning to move slower over the next three to five years, and the order books say so more clearly than any headline can. Volatility is uncomfortable. It is also where positions get built. What did you make of the Alphabet reaction - overdone, or a fair warning about spending? ——— ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.