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โšก ๐—ง๐—Ÿ;๐——๐—ฅ (๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ผ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด; ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ปโ€™๐˜ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ) ๐Ÿ“‰ Market Down, But No Panic: Weโ€™re holding up better than most because we arenโ€™t overexposed to Mag 7, but our main theses havenโ€™t played out yetโ€”which means thereโ€™s still upside ahead. ๐Ÿ™ Special Thanks to @felixfallax / @TheMoodyBlue Huge appreciation for his R&D on copy trading. His work has deep insights into performance breakdownsโ€”which is exactly how I built my strategy. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Selling $VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc) for $ACMR (ACM Research Inc) Vishay was a good play, but ACMR now has a better risk-reward setup with deep value potential. _______________________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐——๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ปโ€ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ช๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ฐ? Markets are down a lot. Crypto? Down even more. Luckily, weโ€™re actually upโ€ฆ albeit mildly. A big reason for this? Weโ€™ve avoided the Mag 7 for over two years now. Sure, that decision hurt our returns in the past two years, but itโ€™s also why we arenโ€™t taking a massive hit now. ๐Ÿ’ก The lesson here? โœ… Avoiding large drawdowns is often about discipline and not following the crowd. โœ… Understand where youโ€™re exposed so you donโ€™t get blindsided. We talked about this back in 2023โ€”see our Investor Update Callโ€”and itโ€™s now playing out exactly as expected. A lot of money can be saved simply by avoiding insanity. That said, none of our main theses have actually played out yet: โŒ $ETH (Ethereum) hasnโ€™t gained as much as Bitcoin. โŒ Chinese stocks (except for a small 5% of our positions) have underperformed. โŒ Shipping has yet to take off. โŒ Value plays like Valaris ($VAL) have struggled. Yet, weโ€™re still above water. Why? Because our uncorrelated bets have balanced each other out in this tough market. ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ & Adding to Positions We also have a stockpile of cash, and Iโ€™m looking to add to existing positions. But itโ€™s a balancing actโ€”I want to increase exposure without over-saturating in any one factor or company. ๐Ÿ’ก ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ? If our theses start playing out, thereโ€™s still plenty of room for gains. As Bullaware put it: "Underperformance in a toppish market, but when the market rolls over, we made a bit of money." Thatโ€™s exactly whatโ€™s happening. ๐Ÿ’ก ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ? ๐—œ๐—ณ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜† ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€. _______________________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ™ ๐—” ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ๐˜€ & ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฆ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ป We need to give huge recognition to YouTuber, content creator, and all-around great guy @felixfallax / @TheMoodyBlue . ๐ŸŽฅ Felix has been making amazing content for years on eToro but hasnโ€™t gotten the recognition (or economic rewards) he deservesโ€”I really wish he did. He just posted what might be his last video for now here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFxpa9rPuiM For those who donโ€™t know, heโ€™s basically been doing R&D for copiers on how to be successful at copy trading. My Favorite Takeaways from His Work: โŒ Donโ€™t chase past performanceโ€”performance chasing never works. โŒ Donโ€™t fall for BS marketing like โ€œdividend portfolioโ€ when you're losing money. โŒ PIโ€™s, donโ€™t lie in your freaking bio! ๐Ÿคฆ Andrew, if youโ€™re reading thisโ€”thank you for everything. We hope to see you back soon. ๐Ÿ’ก This is exactly how I started formulating my strategy. I blew up accounts, and that forced me to break down performance into quantifiable factorsโ€”which is why I now have a robust system that helps us navigate tough markets. Maybe this is a path for you? Becoming a PI (Popular Investor) on eToro could be an option. What youโ€™ve learned is extremely valuableโ€”just hard to turn into a business, in my opinion. _______________________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฉ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—”๐—–๐— ๐—ฅ Valuations for ACMR are just too good at this point. ๐Ÿ” Why the switch? Vishay was a solid play on AI & hardware, but despite positive tailwinds, valuations havenโ€™t improved. ACMR offers a more asymmetric risk-reward trade-off. Iโ€™ll write more on this soon, but thereโ€™s a very interesting opportunity developing here.
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