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The-Chameleon
The-Chameleon
Gioben Capital
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Gioben Capital
Smart Portfolio
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@The-Chameleon Smart Portfolio – Staying Boring, Staying Invested 🦎📈 September came with all the usual noise: “weak seasonality,” “sell the news after the Fed,” “position for a correction.” In fact, we saw several large trading desks calling for a 3–4% pullback this month (we won’t point fingers—The Chameleon isn’t about that). But we told you the asymmetry of risks still leaned to the upside—and The Chameleon was right. ✅ Wall Street loves its catchphrases: seasonality, “sell in May and go away,” “sell the news.” But slogans are not a process. Our process is about adapting dynamically to regimes and probabilities, not headlines. That’s why we’ve stayed with our “boring” portfolio: high beta exposure, crypto, some bonds, and gold as a bond substitute. As we’ve said before, this regime isn’t friendly to fixed income, especially longer duration. 🪙📉 We continue to believe inflation will remain sticky until a real recession arrives. But importantly, any upside surprises in CPI or PCE seem largely priced in, as markets have shown in their muted reactions. That gives us the confidence, from a risk management perspective, to maintain our exposure, simply recalibrating allocations rather than overreacting. Many investors sat out this rally because of fear—and maybe that’s why you see so much (pardon our French) “bear porn” in financial media and on fintwit. 🐻📉 One interesting signal The Chameleon’s models are picking up: Bitcoin’s average beta vs. the S&P 500 has been steadily declining. A couple of months ago, it was close to 2. Now it’s dropped under 1. Could this mean cryptoassets are finally decoupling from broader market beta? Too early to say, but it’s worth monitoring. 🔍💡 As always, a huge thank you to our 1,200+ investors and thousands of followers. You make this process meaningful, and The Chameleon is grateful to share it with you. Stay boring. Stay invested. Let The Chameleon guide you. 🦎
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The-Chameleon
The-Chameleon
Gioben Capital
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