Matthew Richards @capimatt: "📊 Weekly Update — Portfolio..."

United Kingdom

📊 Weekly Update — Portfolio Positioning & Macro Shift Hi everyone 👋 A solid week overall, with the portfolio continuing to stabilise after the recent volatility — and importantly, this has come alongside some deliberate rebalancing on my side. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🔄 What I’ve Changed This Week I’ve made a few small but important adjustments to improve the structure going forward: • Exited energy exposure (CVX) • Slightly increased BTC allocation • Rebalanced across core positions for better risk alignment This isn’t reactive — it’s part of the broader strategy we’ve talked about: 👉 simplifying the portfolio 👉 focusing on highest-conviction assets 👉 aligning more tightly with the macro cycle Energy had a strong run, but it’s becoming increasingly headline-driven and geopolitically sensitive, which doesn’t fit the “calm compounding” goal as well as other areas. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🌍 Macro Update — What’s Driving Markets This remains a macro-led environment, and that’s important to understand. Right now we’re seeing a mix of: • Sticky inflation signals (PPI still elevated) • Oil volatility driven by Middle East tensions • Ongoing uncertainty around rate cuts • Rotation between “risk-on” and “defensive” assets week-to-week The key takeaway: 👉 This is not a clean trend market 👉 It’s a choppy, positioning-driven market That’s exactly why you’ve seen unusual moves like: • Gold pulling back despite uncertainty • Defensive names like McKesson selling off • Consumer staples wobbling • Tech and AI names like NVIDIA holding up stronger This isn’t fundamentals breaking — it’s capital rotating quickly across the board. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🧠 Portfolio Positioning (Why This Still Works) Current structure (simplified): • $BTC (~30%+) → Growth engine • $MCK (McKesson Corp) → Defensive compounder • GLD → Hedge against macro stress • $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) / Tech → Structural growth • $ITA (iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF) → Geopolitical hedge (defense sector) • COST / WMT → Stability layer What I’ve done this week is tighten this further. 👉 Less noise (removed energy) 👉 More conviction (increased BTC slightly) 👉 Cleaner exposure to the cycle ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ₿ Why Increase BTC Here? This is the important part. BTC is currently: • Holding relatively well vs equities • Still below prior highs • Positioned for the next leg of the cycle Meanwhile: • Liquidity conditions are gradually improving • Market is still under-allocated to crypto broadly • Volatility is shaking out weak hands So the adjustment is simple: 👉 Lean slightly more into asymmetric upside 👉 While keeping the rest of the portfolio defensive enough to absorb shocks ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ⚖️ Risk & Performance Even with recent volatility: • Risk score remains controlled • Drawdowns are contained relative to market conditions • Portfolio continues to track well vs benchmark longer-term Short-term noise is expected in this environment — but structurally, nothing has broken. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🎯 The Bigger Picture Zooming out: This is exactly the type of market the strategy is designed for. • Not euphoric • Not crashing • Just uncertain and rotation-heavy That’s where disciplined positioning wins. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 💬 Final Thought Weeks like this are where conviction matters. Not chasing headlines Not overreacting to short-term moves Just refining positioning and staying aligned with the bigger cycle That’s exactly what we’re doing here. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ As always, appreciate everyone following along — any questions, just drop them below 👍

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.