Özcan Ergin Yeter
Market Update: March 2026 March was not an easy month — and we won’t pretend otherwise. Our performance came in at -4.05%. A drawdown we want to put into the right context. Markets faced significant pressure throughout March. Macro uncertainty, ongoing concerns around Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and a broadly risk-off environment weighed heavily on equities. Growth and technology stocks — the biggest beneficiaries of years of excess liquidity — were hit disproportionately hard. 🌍 The Biggest Shock: The Iran War Since February 28, the US and Israel have been conducting strikes on Iran — today marks Day 32 of the conflict. The market impact has been severe: 🔸 Oil: Brent crude surged from ~$73 to over $112 per barrel — the highest level since 2022. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply flows. The IEA has called this the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global energy market. 🔸 Equities: The Dow and S&P 500 are on track for their worst month since September 2022. The Nasdaq for its worst month in a year. Tech and growth were hit the hardest. 🔸 Inflation & Rates: US gasoline prices surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. 10-year Treasury yields spiked to 4.44%. Rate cuts from the Fed are now off the table for the foreseeable future. 🔸 Critical Deadline: Trump has given Iran until April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil analysts warn: if the strait remains closed through mid-April, the supply gap could grow to 10 million barrels per day — an unprecedented shock to global energy markets. $CL1 $OIL What keeps us calm? We are holding a 30% cash position. This is no coincidence. Since January, we have been deliberately reducing exposure — because of a new Fed Chair, a historically weak second presidential year, and rising geopolitical risk. Exactly this scenario. That decision has proven correct. With 30% dry powder, we react to opportunities — not to panic. We are waiting for selective entry points in quality companies across tech and growth, which are now trading at far more attractive valuations. $NSDQ100 $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $BTC Discipline beats panic. Always. Stay tuned.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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