Héctor Cubino López @HectorCubi: "📊 𝐏𝐂𝐄 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐭𝐡𝐞..."

Spain

📊 𝐏𝐂𝐄 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞 This Friday, September 26 at 14:30 CEST the PCE will be released, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator. It may sound technical, but in reality it measures something very everyday: how much, on average, the prices of goods and services we consume in the United States are rising. In July, headline PCE stood at 2.6 percent year on year, and core PCE, which excludes energy and food because they are the most volatile, was around 2.9 percent. For August, estimates point to very similar figures. The key is that 2 percent remains the Fed’s target, and as long as that level is not reached, Powell and his team will be very cautious with rate cuts. 💡 Why does the core matter so much? Because it reflects how hard it really is to bring inflation down. Gasoline or food can rise or fall due to external factors, but services such as rent, healthcare, or education are more stable and harder to reduce. As long as those prices remain firm, the Fed will have to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. 🎯 What could happen with the markets? If the data comes in lower than expected, confidence will increase that the Fed can cut rates faster, which usually benefits growth sectors such as technology $AAPL (Apple) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) If it comes in higher, the typical reaction is to see bond yields rise and more pressure on the most expensive stocks, with possible rotations into defensive sectors such as healthcare or consumer staples $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR) $UNH (UnitedHealth) The most likely outcome is an intermediate scenario, where every tenth of a percentage point is analyzed in detail to anticipate the Fed’s next moves. 🧠 The mental side that affects us as investors Every time a data point like this approaches, the market tends to get nervous. We expect it to confirm what we want to see, and we get impatient if it does not. But the reality is that inflation comes down slowly, and our task as investors is not to guess the exact number, but to learn to live with that pace. The difference between reacting hastily or maintaining calm may seem small in a single day, but accumulated over years it determines a portfolio’s return. Building the future requires resisting the temptation of the immediate headline and staying the course even when the numbers do not immediately support us. “The short term is fleeting, what really matters is the depth of time.” The PCE will give us a snapshot of inflation, but what really defines our path is the consistency with which we act after each data release. Those who manage to maintain serenity in these moments are the ones who build long-term value. And that is the true meaning of investing: transforming short-term volatility into opportunities for a lasting project. 😊 If you have made it this far, thank you for reading. Every day more of us share this way of understanding investing, and seeing this community grow confirms to me that it is not just about numbers, but about building together a space of trust, learning, and purpose. $SPX500 $GOLD