Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮: 𝘼 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡..."

Italy

𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮: 𝘼 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡 𝙎𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙁𝙪𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙮 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙮 𝙎𝙚𝙡𝙡-𝙊𝙛𝙛𝙨, 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙜𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Dear Copiers and follower, in recent months, global economic uncertainty has deepened, driven by the escalating trade war between the United States and China and the aggressive tariff policies pursued by the Trump administration. One of the clearest signs of this instability is the mass sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, which are traditionally seen as safe-haven assets during turbulent times. Surprisingly, despite the growing fear of a potential recession, investors are reducing their holdings of 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, even though yields remain high. China and Japan, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. debt, are leading the sell-off. China, which holds over $750 billion in U.S. Treasuries, appears to be using these assets as a political tool in response to U.S. tariffs—what some analysts call the “weaponization of Treasuries.” However, Beijing also faces risks: excessive selling could devalue the bonds and result in significant financial losses. Japan, with over $1.1 trillion in holdings, is in a similar position. Although its government has not endorsed such a strategy, Japanese life insurers—major Treasury holders—could reduce exposure unilaterally. These unusual capital movements reflect growing distrust toward the U.S. administration, viewed as unpredictable, and show how tariffs are undermining confidence in the foundations of the global economy, including the stability of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, global trade is slowing. According to the WTO, global goods trade is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2025, a figure that could worsen to -1.5% in a worst-case scenario involving further political and tariff tensions. North American exports are forecast to drop 12.6%, with imports falling 9.6%, while Chinese goods are being redirected to Europe, Asia, and Latin America, increasing competitive pressure in those markets. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝 𝙨𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙧 is also feeling the strain. Nvidia recently announced a $5.5 billion charge due to new U.S. export restrictions on chips sold to China, sending its stock tumbling along with other semiconductor companies. These export controls extend to numerous countries, creating a climate of distrust and market volatility. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙚 has acknowledged that the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction: growth is slowing, employment is weakening, and inflation may rise—ironically fueled by the very tariffs meant to protect domestic markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that the inflationary impact of tariffs remains uncertain but potentially dangerous, with the risk of triggering a persistent inflation spiral. In response, the 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙣 𝘾𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝘽𝙖𝙣𝙠 (𝙀𝘾𝘽) has cut interest rates and signaled more are coming—not primarily due to inflation, but due to the global instability caused by U.S. protectionism. The Eurozone remains vulnerable, with stressed supply chains and growth forecasts below 1%. In summary, the tariff war is creating widespread instability, negatively affecting global trade, bond markets, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. In this environment, uncertainty is the driving force behind the unfolding crisis: it undermines traditional safe assets, fuels market volatility, and threatens the already fragile post-pandemic recovery. Unless a policy shift occurs, 2025 may be remembered as the year of tariff-induced global stagnation. $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $ASML.NV (ASML Holding NV)