Georgios Fatouros
๐Ÿ“„ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต: ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ก๐—ผ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ-๐—”๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ๐— -๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€? We just published the first portfolio-level evaluation of MarketSenseAI, the same AI system that powers our portfolio's stock selection. The question I wanted to answer rigorously: ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ "๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†" ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ฎ, ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ ๐—ท๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜†? To answer that properly, all signals analyzed in the paper were generated ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ, ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, on data the AI models had never seen during training. No look-ahead bias, no cherry-picking. ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ&๐—ฃ ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ (๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ต๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€) ๐Ÿ”น Strong Buy picks delivered ๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ซ๐™š๐™ง๐™–๐™œ๐™š ๐™ค๐™› +๐Ÿฎ.๐Ÿญ๐Ÿด%/๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ต vs +1.15% for the equal-weight benchmark โ€” ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿฎ ๐™ฅ๐™ฅ compound excess return. ๐Ÿ”น The result sits at the ๐Ÿต๐Ÿต.๐Ÿณ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ against 10,000 random Monte Carlo portfolios โ€” very strong evidence this is signal, not luck. ๐Ÿ”น ๐——๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: larger excess in down months (+1.31%) than up months (+0.82%), with beta of 0.865. This is ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ฎ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต-๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜†. ๐Ÿ”น The edge is ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ, not static. No single factor (Fundamentals, News, Momentum, Macro) dominates. The system rotates weights with the market regime. ๐—ช๐—ต๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ The same engine analyzed in this paper is what drives our stock selection here on eToro. It's encouraging to have rigorous, out-of-sample evidence that the underlying signal is real and that the system's strength comes from adapting to different market regimes rather than betting on one factor. This doesn't mean every month will outperform. It does mean the process has a measurable edge, validated on data the models had never seen. For more info on the conducted research, checkout the following links: ๐Ÿ“„ Paper Summary: https://gist.science/paper/2604.17327 ๐Ÿ“„ Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2604.17327 โ€” @GeorgeFatouros
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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