📢 Key week in the markets — October 2025
Between the Trump–China agreement, Big Tech earnings and the Fed meeting, this week could set the tone for the year-end close.
1. Trump–China: partial de-escalation
The US and China have outlined a framework agreement to avoid the 100% tariffs and delay restrictions on rare earths.
It’s not a definitive resolution, but it is a relief.
The market is celebrating strongly.
That said, sensitivity remains extreme: one aggressive headline could flip sentiment in a matter of minutes.
2. Big Tech earnings (and our holdings)
A busy week of results: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Apple all report.
The focus will be on AI CapEx, cloud margins and, above all, whether investment is starting to turn into tangible revenue.
For our positions:
→ UNH: watch the medical loss ratio and tone around healthcare costs.
→ PYPL: margins and traction of PayPal World — the market wants signs of stability.
→ FI (Fiserv): organic growth and FCF — still one of the most consistent value stories.
→ KHC, CMCSA, BMY and CHTR: in each case, the key is simple — pricing, margins and 2026 visibility.
3. FOMC: critical meeting on Wednesday
The market expects a 25 bps cut, but the tone will be what really matters.
If the Fed sounds tougher (“higher for longer”), Nasdaq multiples could come under pressure.
If it’s more dovish, tech stocks could get room to keep rising.
4. The AI network
OpenAI, Nvidia and AMD are at the centre of an increasingly complex web of cross-deals:
→ Nvidia will finance infrastructure for OpenAI.
→ OpenAI will get preferred access to AMD GPUs and up to 10% of its equity via warrants.
→ Amazon, Google and Microsoft continue to pour billions into Anthropic and other startups.
This sustains apparent chip demand but also creates a sense of circularity:
AI companies are funding each other, and if returns fail to materialise,
that bubble could deflate quickly.
5. Immediate risks
→ The China deal cooling off, reviving trade tension headlines.
→ The Fed adopting a hawkish tone and pushing real yields higher.
→ Any Big Tech cutting CapEx or showing margin pressure in AI.
→ The market beginning to question whether AI demand is organic or merely “funded”.
If Big Tech shows real AI monetisation, the Fed stays dovish,
and Trump and Xi confirm the truce, we could see another bullish leg.
The market is optimistic but fragile:
everything fits together — as long as nothing breaks.
We have room to react and enough liquidity to seize opportunities if a correction comes.
This week isn’t about guessing direction, but about observing calmly:
how earnings behave, how the Fed sounds and how institutional money reacts.
From there, we’ll make decisions with a clear head.
—
I’m Luis Iñigo, an AI developer and investor with over five years of experience. My approach focuses on balancing returns, risk control, and a long-term vision. I share analysis and decisions with full transparency through my Popular Investor profile.
These are my personal opinions and not investment advice. Capital is at risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$SPX500$NSDQ100$NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc)$MSFT (Microsoft)... Show More
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Wed Dec 10 2025 20:58:12 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
