Dear copiers, investors, and followers,
Today, I want to openly share my biggest investment mistake of the past month: the short position on $PALLADIUM.FUT
First, a brief overview of the asset. Palladium is a precious metal in the platinum group, valued for its corrosion resistance, high catalytic capacity, and ductility. In the stock market, its trading volume is significantly lower than that of gold and silver, a characteristic that amplifies its volatility.
Global production is highly concentrated in a handful of key regions, particularly Russia and South Africa, making supply extremely sensitive to geopolitical risks. Although it is traded as a precious metal, its demand is driven almost entirely by industrial use: primarily the automotive sector. This sector alone accounts for well over 80% of total demand, mainly due to its use in catalytic converters.
Recently, companies such as Stellantis announced temporary production slowdowns across several European plants (including Italy, France, and Germany) in response to weaker demand and elevated inventory levels. Under these conditions, I believed the fundamentals for a significant appreciation of the asset were lacking. My analysis, however, underestimated two key factors: a broader upward trend across the metals complex and, above all, the potential impact of tighter sanctions on Russia, the main producer alongside South Africa.
These elements triggered substantial volatility. Over the past 52 weeks, prices ranged from approximately $869 to $1,692. I always aim to benefit from volatility, but the recent spike far exceeded my risk tolerance. For this reason, I had to close several positions at a loss.
Mistakes are part of the game. I am disappointed, of course, but discipline and dedication remain our compass.
Ad Maiora... Show More
Thanks for sharing this so openly. Mistakes happen, and it’s clear you learned from it. Volatility in metals like palladium is brutal, especially with geopolitical risks, so closing the position to protect capital was the right move.
... Show More
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Sun Mar 08 2026 21:16:21 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
