Fabio De Oliveira Vianna @fabiovianna89: "🔥 HORMUZ BLOCKADE REIGNITES —..."

Portugal

🔥 HORMUZ BLOCKADE REIGNITES — OIL +8%, MARKETS IN RED 📅 April 13, 2026 | Pre-Market Global Macro Update ───────────────────────────────────────── 🌍 MACRO UPDATE Weekend US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours. VP JD Vance left without a deal. Iran demanded control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and access to frozen assets. President Trump responded by announcing a full US naval blockade of all Iranian ports, effective Monday morning — the sharpest escalation since the conflict began in late February. Trump also threatened 50% tariffs on China following reports of Chinese arms shipments to Iran, adding a second geopolitical risk layer to markets. On inflation: US CPI already hit 3.3% from the energy shock — the Fed's updated dot plot revised PCE to 2.7% for 2026. Markets are now pricing the Fed fully on hold. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.33%, up from 4.15% at end of February. Rate cut hopes for 2026 are effectively dead. ───────────────────────────────────────── 🛢️ COMMODITIES Brent Crude → $103.00 (+7.6%) WTI → $104.58 (+8.0%) Gold → $4,736 (-1.1%) Silver → $73.78 (-3.5%) US CPI Mar → 3.3% (↑ and rising) The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20M barrels/day — roughly 27% of global maritime oil trade. OPEC+ has ~3.5M bbl/day of spare capacity, but most of it is physically locked behind the blocked strait. No near-term supply relief. Goldman Sachs: even if flows improve, rerouting adds weeks of lag. Natural gas and LNG are also under pressure globally. ───────────────────────────────────────── 📉 MARKET REACTION S&P 500 Futures → -0.94% Dow Futures → -1.03% Nasdaq Futures → -1.06% Russell 2000 Fut. → -1.44% VIX → 21.23 (+10.4%) BTC/USD → ~$70,890 (-0.8%) Last week, markets had their best week since November (+3% on S&P) after a fragile 2-week ceasefire. That rally is now being unwound. Q1 2026 scoreboard: S&P 500 -4.3% Nasdaq (Growth) -9.8% MSCI ACWI -7.1% Russell Value +2.1% ← only winner The Mag-7 is hitting fresh year-to-date relative lows vs the broader S&P. Mega-cap tech remains under pressure. BTC is holding up better than equities — tracking macro risk but showing relative resilience at ~$70,890. Institutional BTC demand acting as a partial floor. ───────────────────────────────────────── 📊 EARNINGS CATALYST THIS WEEK Q1 earnings season kicks off today: $JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co) $GS (Goldman Sachs Group Inc) $C (Citigroup) $WFC (Wells Fargo & Co) $MS (Morgan Stanley) $BAC (Bank of America Corp) $NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) Watch $GS closely — as a top commodities trading desk, Q1 could show a big revenue beat driven by energy volatility. For $JPM, the focus is NII trajectory under a "Fed on hold" scenario. Any guidance cuts from banks will weigh hard on the financial sector. $AAPL (Apple) side note: Nikkei reports engineering setbacks on the foldable iPhone, potentially delaying mass production by months. Another headwind for Mag-7 sentiment. ───────────────────────────────────────── 🧠 FINAL INSIGHT Stagflation risk is back. Oil above $100 + Fed on hold = toxic mix for growth assets. The rotation underway all year is accelerating: Growth → Value Tech → Energy Long duration → Short duration Structural plays: overweight $XOM (Exxon-Mobil) $CVX and defensive value names. Avoid high-multiple software and speculative tech until a credible Hormuz resolution emerges. Two tail risks to watch: ▲ Upside — surprise diplomatic breakthrough → oil flash-crash (like Apr 8, WTI -16% in one session) ▼ Downside — military miscalculation in the Strait → oil spikes past $120, global recession pricing Stay nimble. Position sizing matters more than conviction right now. ───────────────────────────────────────── ⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.