Rayeiris Maduro Rondon
π‘»π’“π’Šπ’Žπ’Žπ’Šπ’π’ˆ $GAW.L (Games Workshop) 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝑱𝒖𝒏𝒆 π’Žπ’π’—π’†π’Žπ’†π’π’•π’”... Games Workshop has been a great component of our portfolio for a long time. Nevertheless, we’re not afraid of selling when the right price arrives, which gave us gains of +85%. Trading at 35x PE for a retailer in such a niche within the games/figures industry is an exigent valuation. But with such a great balance sheet (no debt, +70 ROCE 5YAV and +40% operating margins), if the price reaches the round 20x PE again, I wouldn’t hesitate to add it again. I kept a small 1.5% allocation ahead of next month's half-year results. Considering the continuous growth the company has had in the past and is expected in the future, which could affect future margin expansion. With the stock already priced for continued strong execution, any disappointment in growth or margins could hit the share price hard. Leaving us with a small position, we retain some upside potential, but limiting our downside if expectations reset. Separately, I kept invested in another company whose valuations are already above my own calculation, but I’m comfortable holding it. That is $IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group), a company with such quality and a great MOAT, which continues to produce revenue growth and margins expansions, which continue compounding year after year even from a full valuation. That’s why I decided to keep a small amount in it rather than exiting entirely; we’re already +200% in this position. One company that has been performing poorly for a while, with -27% this month, and -11% today, is $TEP.PA (Teleperformance SE) with weak results from their biggest competitor $CNXC (Concentrix Corporation), which has given them a -22% in the pre-market trading. The market is penalising both companies after hearing the conference call from Concentrix, they’re closing new deals, specifically +100 new deals, hoping to surpass $120 million in annual recurring revenue, a detail that suggests demand hasn't collapsed, even if growth has slowed. The thing with Teleperformance and Concentrix is that they’re in the eye of the storm with their customer experience solutions. The thesis is that AI is smart enough to replace this sector completely, but with the current costs of AI, I could bet it is still cheaper to keep human forces for some tasks. Trading at 3x PE/NTM Teleperformance is one of those companies which are being heavily punished by the market, and I don’t see how their services are fully replaceable, MOAT might be compromised by AI, but I expect it reaches a point where Humans and AI can work together to make a better service, computers for basic solutions, but for harder problems, where emotional intelligence and problem-solving are needed, I still want to talk with a human being. In the end, June closed almost at -6.8%, but after reaching almost -10% this is good news, I want to remind you all that this industry is not about winning every month, even every year, it is having a foundation that backs up every decision you make to compound in the long run. Let the numbers, not the noise, decide when to act. $SPX500 $AUS200 $BTC $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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