Hugo Angelo Lucien Manenti @hugomanenti95: "𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 Dear..."

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𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 Dear all, November was a clear continuation of the trends already visible in October. While the macro environment remains broadly supportive for markets, the same late-cycle dynamics persist: consumer strain, mixed labour data, policy uncertainty, and narrow market leadership. It is still too early to draw strong conclusions, but the contours of a more complex 2026 are becoming visible. 𝗜. 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 & 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 🔹 Inflation stabilising, but not “solved” Inflation is not spiking because of tariffs as some feared. However, it is stabilising at a level of 2.5 - 3.0%, which is too high for the Fed, given its self-imposed 2.0% target. My view remains that the natural rate of inflation is now in that 2.5 - 3.0% range, and going back to 2% would inflict too much pain on the economy - hence it won't be done. 🔹 Labour market: weak but not collapsing Private-sector job creation remained anemic, and layoffs ticked up again. Younger workers continue to experience the greatest stress, while household surveys show growing anxiety. Lower migration and falling participation keep the unemployment rate from rising quickly, masking some of the underlying weakness. 🔹 Policy debate intensifies The Fed is looking split on the path forward. Markets continue to price further easing, even though Powell has avoided committing to a clear path. Meanwhile, fiscal debates are shifting toward 2026 priorities, including industrial policy, tariffs, healthcare and entitlement spending. In an uncertain environment, we'll need to focus on those priorities. 🔹 U.S.–China relations: managed tension continues November saw further small steps toward de-escalation. Export control discussions are now framed as ongoing technical negotiations rather than political flashpoints. This remains a theme: periodic frictions that eventually resolve, but not without volatility. 𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆: The macro backdrop is still positive for equities, but cracks are deepening. 𝗜𝗜. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 Leadership remains concentrated in megacap tech, while smaller and value-oriented names continue to lag. November was a bitter month for us, as our very positive earnings were outweighed by a blowup in some medtech names. 🔹 The Oncology Institute $TOI (Oncology Institute Inc/The) Delivered another excellent quarter, with strong patient growth and continued improvement in margins. The shift toward value-based oncology care is gaining traction, as insurers grapple with rising treatment costs. TOI remains one of my highest-conviction positions and could be worth multiples of today's price. 🔹 Amentum $AMTM (Amentum Holdings Inc) Reported steady progress across its key verticals (missiles, drones, nuclear, and cyber), reinforcing my view that AMTM sits perfectly at the intersection of several multi-year government spending priorities. Execution has been consistent, and valuation still looks attractive relative to peers. 🔹 Onity Group $ONIT (Onity Group Inc) Provided encouraging earnings, showing increasing stability within the business. Also completed an accretive sale of the reverse mortgage business to FOA. ONIT remains overlooked in my view, still valued well below its tangible book value. 🔹 Xponential Fitness $XPOF (Xponential Fitness Inc) Posted stabilising numbers, with improving performance at Club Pilates and early signs that the portfolio restructuring is taking hold. After last year’s turbulence, sentiment is slowly normalising. Execution remains key, but the risk/reward is improving. Overall, I am pleased with the performance of most of the portfolio and feel increasingly confident in our positioning. However, a blowup in some of the healthcare names we own (seemingly due to a financial "influencer" dumping his positions) set us back this month. 𝗜𝗜𝗜. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 November largely confirmed the themes I discussed last month: • a multi-speed economy, • supportive financial conditions, • sticky but manageable inflation, • and still-robust earnings reports. At the same time, consumer-related indicators remain soft, labour data is mixed, and the policy outlook is uncertain. These contrasts often characterise late-cycle periods, and they can persist for some time. From a portfolio perspective, I remain constructive but attentive. Our portfolio is positioned for a regime where nominal growth stays firm, investment outpaces consumption, and fundamentals matter more than narratives. I believe this positioning remains appropriate for the environment ahead. As always, I welcome your thoughts and questions. All the best, Hugo

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.