Ingvar Rueckemann
Edited
Good morning copiers and followers! That was quite some market action last night! $SPX500 sold off with -2.7%, $NSDQ100 lost -3.5%, and even this portfolio pulled back -2.8%. ❗️The most important thing right now: Zoom out. Although the move yesterday was abrupt, in the big picture things are not as bad as they feel. Take the portfolio, for example: It is now on the same level as on 29 September - just 2 weeks ago. Similar story for the S&P500, which is now back at levels from 11 September - also just 4 weeks ago. All in all, this looks more like an overdue pullback after markets have rallied without pause since the April Liberation Day shock. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 I'll give you the macroeconomic background nonetheless: Markets sold off yesterday because Donald Trump announced new 100% tariffs on imports from China. That's after China had put export restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals on Thursday. Trump and China's Xi Jinping were supposed to meet later this month to solve their trade dispute, but clearly this seems unlikely now. Thus the strong market reaction. 👉 My take: Both sides are building leverage, which is not uncommon for such negotiations. The new tariffs are set to take effect on 1 November, not immediately. This indicates that they are a negotiation tool, and we have seen that playbook in the past: build leverage, and set deadlines so everyone feels urgency and actually gets stuff done. Plenty of time for both sides to negotiate and for markets to calm down. Portfolio positioning remains unchanged. Enjoy your weekend! Ingvar
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