Yun Jui Tsai @YunRueiTsai: "$NSDQ100 Wednesday Trend Check:..."

Taiwan

$NSDQ100 Wednesday Trend Check: Don't Guess Direction — Price the Odds $NSDQ100 sits at 29,474, right on the 50MA (29,431) — the bull/bear line in the sand. So instead of asking "up or down," here are the four scenarios with odds: 35% Range Digestion (base case): 29,200–29,700 chop, Friday OPEX pinning, waiting for late-July FOMC 30% Bull Confirmation: $ASML (ASML Holding NV) $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) deliver, oil contained, reclaims 29,700 then challenges 30,000–30,200 25% 50MA Loss: sell-the-news or oil spike, retraces to 28,800–29,100 10% Left-Tail Shock: Hormuz escalation plus a TSMC capex cut, breaks 28,800 toward 28,000 One detail worth noticing: downside scenarios total 35% — the same weight as the base case. Not bearish, just honest math. Upside is +2.5%, downside is -5%. That asymmetry is why sizing up before earnings is betting on luck, not skill. if SOXX stalls, NDX needs non-semi heavyweights — $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $GOOG (Alphabet) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $CRWD (Crowdstrike Holdings) — to carry the index. Chips are no longer the only engine, and that rotation matters more than the index level itself. $SPX500 $OIL $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.