Francisco Jose Ortiz
๐Ÿ“Š ๐—™๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜„ February: -6.19% YTD: -3.37% Yes, we're underperforming $VT.US (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) It was a tough month. Letโ€™s explain why. ๐Ÿ”ป ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ If you look at the top holdings individually, you would think the portfolio had a double-digit drawdown. Big Tech was hit hard: $GOOG (Alphabet) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) (increased) $MSFT (Microsoft) (increased) 1๏ธโƒฃ ๐—”๐—œ ๐˜ƒ๐˜€ ๐—ฆ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐˜๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ The market moved from โ€œAI will increase marginsโ€ to โ€œAI capex will destroy free cash flowโ€ to "AI will eat software". Large investments in data centers and AI infrastructure created fear about short-term margins. Valuations compressed fast. Many software companies went down after every new AI feature announcement on X. In my view, in most cases, this was mostly due to multiple compressions and speculation, not business deterioration. Thatโ€™s why I increased: - Microsoft around 400 - Amazon below 200 Not because I think itโ€™s the bottom. But because long term, those levels look attractive to me. ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜‡๐—ถ๐—น ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—น January was very strong for Brazil. February reversed part of that move. This affected: $MELI (MercadoLibre Inc) $NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.) The businesses did not break. It was positioning and momentum cooling off. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ & ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ด๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ $TCOM declined due to Chinese government investigations. That is political risk. It creates volatility, but it does not automatically destroy the business thesis. In fact, I continue to think Trip.com is the best OTA in the world by a mile (Westerners just don't know about it yet). ๐Ÿข ๐—ฆ๐—ฃ๐—š๐—œ ๐—ก๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ผ๐˜ $SPGI (S&P Global Inc) fell under the idea that AI will replace information businesses. SPGI is financial infrastructure, a high-quality business with a wide moat. These narratives often oversimplify complex businesses. ๐ŸŸข ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—›๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ Not everything was negative. - ANTA Sports performed really well. - Emaar Development continued to grow strong (although I'm expecting a huge downturn tomorrow due to the Middle East conflict). - $SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) also had a strong month and, - $ETOR (eToro Group LTD) reacted well after earnings. ๐—š๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜. If this had been only US Tech, performance would have been worse. ๐Ÿ”„ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐— ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ I opened new positions during weakness and closed $CVX. Everything is now visible in the new โ€œ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€โ€ section on my profile. Full transparency. ๐Ÿง  ๐—•๐—ถ๐—ด ๐—ฃ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ February was: - Multiple compression - Rotation - Narrative-driven volatility Not thesis destruction. This portfolio is built for: - Long-term investing (years, decades) - Geographic diversification - Quality businesses - Rational capital allocation โš ๏ธ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ I expect more volatility. The escalation in the Middle East conflict adds uncertainty. When uncertainty rises: - Risk appetite falls - Volatility increases Thatโ€™s normal. To everyone who continues trusting me and copying the strategy: ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚! Itโ€™s easy to trust in green months. Real long-term investing is built in red months. We stay disciplined. We stay diversified. We stay long-term.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.