Decio Nocerino @decionocerino: "📊 March has been brutal...."

Italy

📊 March has been brutal. But history says something different. The S&P 500 has now posted five consecutive weeks of losses. The Nasdaq entered correction territory — down ~13% from its October peak. The Dow joined it last Friday, closing below 45,200. Year to date, my portfolio reflects a -13.1% performance. The catalyst is no mystery. On February 28, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered one of the most significant geopolitical shocks since 2022. Brent crude surged past $110/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz — a corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — has seen severe disruption. Inflation expectations are climbing. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a rate hike by year-end, reversing months of cut expectations. 🌍 My honest view: this is not over. I expect an additional 10–15% drawdown from current levels, potentially by September, as the oil shock transmits into corporate margins, consumer confidence erodes further (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 53.3, near multi-year lows), and the Fed shifts from dovish to neutral-to-hawkish. ⚖️ And yet — this is precisely the moment disciplined investors are built for. Not every stock is equally exposed. Large-cap U.S. equities tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have already priced in significant macro risk. The RSI on both $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) is deep in oversold territory. The price-to-forward-earnings compression on quality tech names is now approaching levels seen in October 2022 — the last true buying opportunity in this cycle. Today I deployed approximately 3% of my total portfolio value, split between SPY (S&P 500 broad exposure) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100), initiating a disciplined dollar-cost-averaging program at these levels. 🔹 This is not a call that the bottom is in. It is a recognition that over a 7–10 year horizon, the entry price today will almost certainly look attractive in retrospect. Howard Marks said it best: “You can’t predict. You can prepare.” The war will end. Oil will normalize. Technology adoption curves — AI, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure — are structural, not cyclical. These tailwinds don’t reverse because of a geopolitical quarter. I will continue adding in tranches if the market gives me lower prices. If it doesn’t, I’ll have bought at a good level. Either way, the strategy remains unchanged. What’s your current positioning? Are you holding cash waiting for a bottom, or deploying gradually into the correction? $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MSFT (Microsoft) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.