Alberto Poli
๐Ÿš€ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™‰๐™š๐™ฌ ๐™ƒ๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™จ: ๐™’๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ซ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ข๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ ? ๐™๐™Ž-๐˜พ๐™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™– ๐™๐™š๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™€๐™–๐™จ๐™š๐™™ A preliminary agreement has finally been reached between the US and China! This understanding, which wards off an escalation of tariffs, brings a sigh of relief to global markets. China is committed to suspending restrictions on rare earth exports and increasing purchases of US agricultural products (e.g., soybeans). This "framework agreement" reduces uncertainty and boosts confidence, even if the crucial long-term issues regarding technology and the supply chain remain unresolved. ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ก๐™ก'๐™จ ๐™๐™š๐™™: ๐™‡๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™Ž๐™๐™–๐™™๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™จ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™จ The Federal Reserve confirmed a 25 basis point cut to interest rates (3.75%-4.00%), a widely anticipated move driven by signs of economic slowdown and a weakening labor market. However, Jerome Powell's message was a mix of prudence and uncertainty: โ€ข โœ‚๏ธ ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š ๐˜พ๐™ช๐™ฉ (๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ ๐™—๐™ฅ)Defined as a "risk management move" to bring monetary policy closer to a neutral stance, balancing inflation and employment. โ€ข ๐Ÿšซ ๐™€๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™Œ๐™ (๐™Œ๐™ช๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š ๐™๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ): The Fed announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1st, a decision that injects liquidity into the system and serves as a cautionary signal. โ€ข ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐˜พ๐™–๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š: Powell cooled expectations for a December cut, stating it is "by no means guaranteed" and will depend on future data. โ€ข ๐Ÿค” ๐™๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ฎ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐˜ฟ๐™ž๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ: The decision was not unanimous, reflecting differing views within the Fed and operational difficulties due to a lack of official government data. โ€ข ๐ŸŽข ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™๐™š๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ: The mixed message (cut + end of QT, but no future promise) led to volatility. 2Y Treasury yields rose (reducing aggressive cut expectations), the US dollar strengthened, and Wall Street closed lower. ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐™€๐˜ผ๐™๐™‰๐™„๐™‰๐™‚๐™Ž: ๐˜ฝ๐™ž๐™œ ๐™๐™š๐™˜๐™ ๐™๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™Ž๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ We are deep into earnings season! Big tech companies have already moved markets with contrasting results. A detailed analysis of individual reports will arrive soon in a dedicated post, to understand who shone and who disappointed expectations. Don't forget to copy my portfolio. See you soon! $EURUSD $GOLD $SILVER $OIL
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