$AZN.L (AstraZeneca) STOCK ANALYSIS
AstraZeneca is a global biopharmaceutical company, founded in 1999 and headquartered in Cambridge, UK. Focused on innovation in prescription medicines, it operates in over 100 countries. The company specializes in three key therapeutic areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism (CVRM), and Respiratory & Immunology. Its top medicines include Tagrisso, Farxiga, and Symbicort.
AstraZeneca heavily invests in research and development (over $7 billion annually), driving advances in biologics, genomics, and digital health. It played a significant role during the COVID-19 pandemic by developing the Vaxzevria vaccine.
AstraZeneca is committed to sustainability with its Ambition Zero Carbon plan, aiming for zero carbon emissions by 2025. In 2023, the company generated $44.6 billion in revenue, driven by its strong oncology and cardiovascular portfolios. Looking ahead, AstraZeneca’s focus on innovation and access to healthcare ensures its continued leadership in global healthcare.
From a financial perspective, AstraZeneca appears to be in an extremely solid position:
* Piotroski F-Score (a number between 0 and 9 used to assess the strength of a company's financial position): AstraZeneca's score is 8, suggesting that the company is in a period of great financial health.
* Altman Z-Score (a discriminant analysis index used to statistically determine the probability of a company's bankruptcy): AstraZeneca's score is 3.15, which is above the optimal threshold of 3. This indicates that the probability of the company's failure is virtually zero.
* Beneish M-Score (a statistical model that uses financial ratios calculated from a company's accounting data to check if it is likely that the company's reported earnings have been manipulated): AstraZeneca's score is -2.71. Since this is below the standard threshold of -1.78, it indicates that the company is not artificially manipulating its earnings to appear more favorable to investors.
Looking at AstraZeneca's data and comparing it with the reference market ($SPX500), the company appears relatively undervalued: the S&P 500 currently has a forward P/E of 21.58, while AstraZeneca, according to analyst estimates from Yahoo Finance, has a forward P/E of 17.73. At the same time, the S&P 500's operating margin (TTM) is 11.21%, whereas AstraZeneca's operating margin is 22.42%, which is a significantly better figure.
In light of all these data, analysts are expecting an increase in AstraZeneca's stock price: Yahoo Finance, for example, anticipates a 9.44% price growth, while analysts at TipRanks expect a 5.06% rise from current levels.
Lastly, it's important to consider that AstraZeneca's stock is currently in a period of strong positive seasonality: from 2014 to 2023, AstraZeneca's stock has had an average rise of 1.61% in September, with a 70% probability of closing the month with a positive return. Considering that AstraZeneca's shares are currently down 5.22% from the beginning of the month, if the seasonality continues to follow its historical trend, one could expect a 7.21% increase by the end of the month (which is exactly aligned with what analysts believe the fair value of the stock really is). Given that September is historically a negative month for the market, holding a stock that moves counter to the trend could be beneficial not only for generating positive returns but also for stabilizing a portfolio during a downturn similar to what we've experienced in recent days.
Thanks for the support,
Andrea... Show More
Great analysis. Wished we would see more of those on the feed.
On a side note, comparison with peers and its own historical valuation, together with the company’s pipeline would be great value adds.... Show More
