Tianyu Qi
Easy money is coming again. That’s why staying invested is important for the long run, even if there can be risks in the short term. The July U.S. jobs report delivered a major shock, showing only 73,000 new jobs, far below the 100,000 minimum forecast. More alarming were huge downward revisions: May’s gains were cut from 144,000 to just 19, and June’s from 147,000 to 14,000—a combined reduction of more than 250,000 jobs, the steepest since 1968. This raised serious concerns about the accuracy of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, which initially relies on incomplete surveys and models. Participation in BLS surveys has dropped from over 90% a decade ago to around 60%, increasing the risk of large corrections. These revisions suggest the labor market is weakening much faster than previously believed, echoing the 2008 and 2020 downturns. Despite the Fed citing labor stability, markets now expect a September rate cut with near certainty. Monetary easing could help asset holders, but it may further weaken the dollar and raise living costs. $SPX500 $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $NSDQ100
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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