Hello everyone!
A market correction is usually defined as a drop of 10% to 20%, while a bear market is anything over 20%. Right now, the market is down about 9% from its recent top, and the question on everyoneโs mind is what is to come. Will this become a correction? Will it become a bear market? Or are we about to bounce back?
JPMorgan estimates a 40% chance of a recession this year, while Goldman Sachs puts it at 20%. But the reality is that ๐ป๐ผ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ ๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐โ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด. This might be the bottom, or it could just be the beginning of it all.
But the beautiful thing about our strategy is that ๐๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ปโ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐ณ๐ณ. Weโve invested in companies at fair, good, and great valuations, which means ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐.
Take $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) for example. The stock is down 41% YTD and still trades at a P/E of over 100, if we go into a full bear market the stock could go down another 75% with ease and that would just start to put it at a reasonable level. On the other hand, $CROX (Crocs Inc), our largest holding while down 8% YTD is trading at a P/E of a little over 6. If it were to drop by let's say 50% it would bring the P/E down to 3 and the company would be able to buy back the entire float in about 3 years.
Since we avoid buying overpriced stocks ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ the overall market in an extended downturn. While that doesnโt mean we go into the red in a bear market Iโm super confident we should outperform if thatโs the case.
Since the start of the year, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฐ%, ๐๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฒโ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฝ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฑ%. Even today, while we closed down 0.9%, we still outperformed the market, which ended the day down 2.6%.
I think ๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ and if the markets go into deep discount Iโll make sure to add extra funds to my account to buy any great deals I find.
Hope you all have a great week, even if the market is down!... Show More
Buenos dรญas Pedro, crees que este sea un buen momento para invertir? Gracias!!... Show More Translate
1 reply
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Sat Nov 08 2025 10:07:57 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
