๐๐ก๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฒ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ? ๐
JPMorgan shares dropped sharply yesterday, falling around 4.6 %, the biggest decline since April. The move came after Marianne Lake, CEO of Consumer and Community Banking, updated the bankโs outlook at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference. Her comments about higher expenses in 2026 and a more fragile consumer environment triggered a selloff of the stock and some other banks.
JPMorgan now expects about 105 billion dollars in expenses next year. Most of the increase will come from growth and volume related costs in the consumer bank, such as compensation and credit card marketing. Strategic investments like technology, AI and branch expansion will also add to costs. Inflation and real estate pressures remain part of the structural expense outlook. These numbers came in above analyst expectations, which were closer to 100 to 101 billion dollars.
JPMorgan is currently on track for roughly 96 billion dollars of expenses in 2025, so next year brings a clear step up. CFO Jeremy Barnum had already signaled in October that analyst estimates for 2026 were too low.
๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐
Lake said consumers and small businesses still appear resilient, but their savings buffers from the pandemic have weakened. She described the backdrop as โa little bit more fragileโ and expects unemployment to โgrind a little higherโ next year.
Credit card losses are expected to be 3.3 percent in 2025 and rise to around 3.6 percent or a bit lower in 2026. Even with this increase, the bank still plans to issue 10.5 million new credit card accounts in 2025.
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ๐๐ ๐
Fourth quarter investment banking fees should rise by low single digits (YoY), while market revenue is expected to increase by low teens. Deposit growth may be slower in 2026 because the Federal Reserve cut rates more slowly than JPMorgan originally expected, although higher rates have supported margins this year.
Lake reaffirmed the bankโs long term targets for US deposits and credit card loans, noting that the strategy remains unchanged.
Overall, yesterdayโs decline reflected the marketโs reaction to higher projected costs and signs of consumer softness, even as some business lines show improving momentum.
$JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co)$SPX500$NSDQ100$DJ30... Show More
Makes sense the stock reacted to higher expense guidance and softer consumer signals.
But nothing in the long-term fundamentals changed.
Short-term reaction, long-term stability.... Show More
It's hilarious how little we learned from past crisis in consumer debt the average person does not handle money well enough to buy things on credit ... Show More
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Sun Feb 15 2026 01:56:51 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
