Joey Diekstra @JoeyDiekstra: "𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐓𝐇𝐬⚡ Over..."

Netherlands

𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐓𝐇𝐬⚡ Over the past month, markets moved from pricing a major energy shock to pushing back into record highs. The Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz briefly sent oil sharply higher and equities lower, but sentiment reversed quickly. With tensions stabilising and earnings coming in strong, the S&P 500 is now back at all time highs. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 📈 The Hormuz disruption dominated early, with a significant share of global oil flows at risk. That pushed crude higher and raised inflation concerns, weighing on equities. As de escalation signs emerged, markets rebounded aggressively. The move back to ATHs has been fast, suggesting positioning was light and investors were quick to re risk. At the same time, the Magnificent Seven delivered strong earnings beats, once again driving index performance and reinforcing their outsized influence. 𝐌𝐲 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰 My view is that markets are largely pricing this as a contained geopolitical event. The rebound has been powerful, but also heavily reliant on big tech and improving sentiment. That leaves things somewhat fragile. If either geopolitics re escalates or leadership narrows further, the current strength could be tested. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 Two things stand out. First, any renewed disruption in Hormuz would quickly feed back into oil and inflation expectations. Second, the AI trade. A lot of current valuations assume continued strong monetisation. If that starts to disappoint, even slightly, it could trigger broader downside corrections given how concentrated index performance has been. $SPX500 $GLD (SPDR Gold) $SLV (iShares Silver Trust) $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.