Dávid Halascsák
LVMH ($MC.PA) reported its FY2025 results earlier this week, and while the numbers confirmed resilience in a difficult environment, they offered little reassurance to investors hoping for encouraging signs of a turnaround. Key takeaways: - Revenue was essentially flat YoY, with just 1% growth in H2. Despite that the net income decreased 13%, because of the deteriorating margins. - The 8% increase in free cash flow can be attributed to changes in working capital and lower investment spending. - All regions are affected, with no healthy uptrend, although the US and Asia (ex-Japan) managed 1% growth. Europe and Japan are still suffering. - The clear driver behind the current results is Selective Retailing, mainly Sephora, which delivered 4% YoY growth, accelerating to 8% in Q4. It will likely play an even more important role going forward, given current growth rates and margins. - The Fashion & Leather Goods segment, which accounts for nearly half of total revenue, remains under pressure, declining 5% YoY. That said, the tone on 2026 was cautious, with no clear guidance from management. Recent US consumer confidence data further suggests that any recovery will be gradual at best, pointing to another year of stagnation rather than a sharp rebound. Despite beating analyst expectations, it is not surprising that the market reacted negatively, with the stock falling nearly 15% in the days following the release. With no clear catalyst in sight, the current valuation appears rich, so I rate it as a HOLD.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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