AI Bubble? Or Healthy Reset? Here’s the Real Story
Every week someone screams “AI BUBBLE!”.
But when you zoom out, the data tells a very different story.
Take the Nasdaq-100 chart I’ve attached (2009 to now). After a huge run, the index has already corrected back to its long-term average, the white dotted line in the middle of the channel.
Not overheated. Not euphoric.
Just… normal.
This is exactly what you want to see in a healthy long-term trend.
1. Parabolic moves are how bubbles form and burst
In 1998 and 1999, prices went straight up with no pullbacks.
That’s a bubble. That’s when valuations detach from reality.
That’s when markets become fragile.
Corrections are not danger signs – they are safety valves.
A market that regularly returns to its average is a market that stays sustainable.
A market that never corrects is the one you should fear.
Right now?
The Nasdaq100 is simply sitting back in the middle of its long-term trend channel, not at the expensive red zone, not at the cheap green zone.
Just cruising along the same trend it has respected for 15+ years.
2. Skepticism is healthy – bubbles need euphoria
Another reason I don’t see a bubble:
everyone is calling it a bubble.
Bubbles form when nobody thinks a bubble is possible.
When the crowd believes “this time it’s different”.
Today, the narrative is the opposite.
People doubt AI. They distrust valuations. They expect a crash.
That skepticism is exactly what keeps markets healthy and prevents mania.
Fear and doubt are fuel for long-term bull markets.
3. The long-term trend is intact
Look at the chart:
Green line: historically cheap
Red line: historically expensive
White dotted line: long-term average trend
The Nasdaq-100 is sitting perfectly on the average.
Not stretched. Not collapsing.
Just following the same upward slope it has respected since 2009.
If anything, this correction reset valuations back to a sustainable level.
4. The AI boom has real revenue behind it
Unlike the dot-com bubble, today’s tech giants:
- generate billions in free cash flow
- dominate cloud infrastructure
- are shipping real AI products
- have real customers
This isn’t 1999.
This is the most productive technology wave in decades and the market is treating it responsibly.
Final thought
A correction isn’t a bubble popping.
It’s the market returning to fair value.
Momentum + skepticism = healthy bull market.
And right now, that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
$NSDQ100$QQQ (Invesco QQQ)$TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ)$NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)... Show More
HEALTHY RESET ???..What the fxxx ???
Why dont you propose this "healthy reset" to the magnificient 5 ???? For sure MM dont have guts to do that !!!... Show More
Its wierd, u were saying "nobody is saying this time is different "
But u hinted it at the that this time is different from dot com bubble, yes open ai spending trillions for 10 billion profits. ... Show More
People were skeptic from 1996 onwards as well, it doesn’t exclude market misbehaviour. The internet also has true value behind it, companies were just not ready to implement it the same way that nowadays there’s more AI tools than people know what do to with and billions have been misallocated
Not trying... Show More
hmm, although agreed corrections need to be stronger in opposite direction of prior strong corrections, from a long perspective; better deflate than to pop. Like a pseudo Newton's 3rd law with a touch of Taoism. However, your arguments are quite selective, jeez. There is a just as long list to show... Show More
You never know is it a fluctuation or beginning of a market crash. ... Show More
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Sat Feb 14 2026 02:43:24 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
