Thomas Roddy @ThomasRoddy: "📊 Portfolio Update – Rebalance..."

France

📊 Portfolio Update – Rebalance Notes I’ve made a few adjustments this week to keep the portfolio aligned with the strategy: protect downside, keep beta controlled, and stay positioned for solid risk-adjusted returns. ✅ PFS – Sold (profit taken, risk no longer justified) I’ve exited PFS. The position had become too large relative to its risk profile, so I decided to take profits and reduce concentration. The main issue is that PFS no longer screens well on forward fundamentals. We’ve had earnings revisions moving the wrong way, and the growth/valuation mix simply doesn’t justify the risk — especially given the stock’s recent downtrend. Even after selling, the trade was still a win: a ~5% gain on a large position, which is solid performance and still competitive versus the market year-to-date. The deeper reason is macro sensitivity. PFS’s earnings are highly exposed to the rate environment. If the Fed begins cutting rates faster than expected, asset yields can fall quicker than funding costs adjust, while deposit competition remains intense. Deposit betas have risen across the industry—customers demand more yield to stay—so margins can compress and earnings growth can suffer. That also removes the “value re-rating” catalyst that banks rely on. 🔄 Rotation: GNW Out → NWG In I’m also replacing GNW with NWG (NatWest). GNW’s latest results were a clear red flag, and the legacy long-term-care block remains a meaningful overhang. The company itself expects the closed block to continue draining capital into 2026, and there is no near-term catalyst that fixes this decisively. That’s not the kind of uncertainty I want sitting inside a low-volatility portfolio. NatWest is a comparable-risk financial, but with a completely different quality/momentum profile. It has stronger structural profitability, a clearer shareholder return story, and it is positioned to benefit from the same international rotation theme that’s already helping our exposure via MFG and VEU. 🪙 Trim: Silver + SNEX Finally, I trimmed silver exposure and SNEX to take profits and avoid over-concentration. These positions can do well in the right environment, but they’re also the type that can swing sharply and distort the portfolio’s risk if they get too large. 🔭 Looking Ahead A bigger rebalance is planned for the end of Q1, where I’ll revisit factor alignment across the portfolio and make any necessary structural adjustments. Until then, the goal is simple: keep the portfolio stable, diversified, and positioned to compound. As always, questions are welcome. 🙌 $SPX500 $PSLV (Sprott Physical Silver Trust) $VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)

PSLV

Sprott Physical Silver Trust

VEU

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US

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