Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 8 ꜱᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025 The..."

United Arab Emirates

Edited

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 8 ꜱᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025 The US dollar’s resilience this summer has tempted some to call time on the dollar bear market. However, the balance of macro forces—from policy to flows—still leans clearly toward further USD weakness into year-end and beyond. 1. Monetary policy is tilting against the dollar. The Fed has adopted a risk-management stance, lowering the bar for cuts as the US labour market cools. US growth may slow further into late 2025 and 2026, raising the odds of deeper easing by the Fed. 2. Rate differentials are narrowing. Deutsche Bank argues that the EUR–US interest rate gap has compressed enough that the fair value for $EURUSD now sits in the 1.18–1.20 range. Further Fed cuts from here would only increase incentives for non-US investors to hedge dollar exposure, mechanically pressuring the currency. 3. Global policy mix no longer flatters the greenback. While the Fed lowers the threshold for cuts, the ECB has raised it and the BoE has struck a more hawkish tone. This is an unusual combination that historically has coincided with a softer dollar as relative expected returns normalise. 4. The US exceptionalism premium is fading. Although deficits in France and the UK have drawn scrutiny, America’s fiscal position is little better. Questions of governance and institutional independence, once seen as reinforcing the dollar’s “safe-asset” status, now appear less supportive. I expect US long interest rates to fall relative to European rates, propelling EURUSD above 1.25 within the next 12 months. Meanwhile, easier Fed policy should continue to underpin equity markets into the year-end. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +28.1% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 None 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

EURUSD

1.16425

-0.00082 (-0.07%)

1 Mentioned

EURUSD

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies