๐๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง - ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ผ๐๐๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ & ๐๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ก ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐๐ก ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ข๐๐ฉ๐
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Palantir ($PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.)) is difficult to estimate due to the vast number of workflows, industries, and decisions its software can optimize via agents. Given that $PLTR is operationalizing agents before any other vendor, revisiting this analysis can offer insights into its terminal revenue potential.
๐ผ๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐จ & ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ช๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ฉ
AI agents will significantly boost productivity by reducing input resources needed for a given output and increasing output for the same inputs. In this framework:
โข ๐๐ฃ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฉ๐จ: Labor-related costs.
โข ๐๐ช๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฉ๐จ: Non-revenue and revenue functions.
๐๐ค๐ฃ-๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ช๐๐๐จ:
โข ๐๐: Maintaining corporate networks, ensuring access to resources, and securing systems.
โข ๐๐: Managing employee contracts, performance reviews, and welfare.
โข ๐ผ๐๐๐ค๐ช๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐: : Ensuring accurate financial records and compliance.
๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฉ is more straightforward, as it represents the total revenue generated by the business.
Since AI agents will reduce costs and increase revenue, they will drive significant profit growth. Estimating the impact for an average-sized company allows us to scale up globally and assess how much of this new value could be captured by AI software vendors like PLTR.
๐ฝ๐๐จ๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ ๐พ๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ฃ๐ฎ
Key assumptions include salary + employee overhead, revenue per employee, and the number of employees per company.
๐ญ. ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐๐จ
โฆ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐-๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐: 40% โ 80 employees.
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฃ-๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐: 60% โ 120 employees.
๐ฎ. ๐พ๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐จ
โฆ ๐๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ฎ + ๐ค๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐: $100,000 ($85k salary + $15k software/services).
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ: 200 ร $100,000 = $20,000,000.
โฆ ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐จ: Rent, insurance, materials = $4,000,000.
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐จ: $24,000,000.
๐ฏ. ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐
โฆ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐-๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐: $350,000.
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐: 80 ร $350,000 = $28,000,000.
๐ฐ. ๐ฝ๐๐จ๐๐ก๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐๐ฉ
โฆ $28,000,000 (revenue) โ $24,000,000 (costs) = $4,000,000.
๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ผ๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐จ ๐ฟ๐๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐
๐ฑ. ๐๐ค๐ฃ-๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐จ (๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐๐จ)
โฆ 3ร productivity โ ๐ฒ๐ณ% ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ ๐ง๐๐๐ช๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ.
โฆ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐ก๐๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ: $12M ร (1 โ 67%) = $4,000,000.
โฆ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐๐จ: $๐ด,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ (mostly from replacing humans with agents).
๐ฒ. ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐-๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐จ (๐ด๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐๐จ)
โฆ 2ร productivity โ ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ% ๐ข๐ค๐ง๐ ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐.
โฆ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐ค๐ฎ๐๐: $350,000 ร 2 = $๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ฃ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ 80 ร $700,000 = $๐ฑ๐ฒ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
โฆ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐: $๐ฎ๐ด,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐๐๐ฌ ๐&๐
๐ณ. ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐:
โฆ $28M + $28M = $๐ฑ๐ฒ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐ด. ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค๐ง ๐พ๐ค๐จ๐ฉ:
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฃ-๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐: $๐ฐ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ (down from $12M).
โฆ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐ ๐ง๐ค๐ก๐๐จ: $๐ด,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ (unchanged).
โฆ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ: $๐ญ๐ฎ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐ต. ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐พ๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐จ (๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐): $๐ฐ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐พ๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐จ ๐๐ค๐ฌ: $16,000,000.
๐ญ๐ญ. ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐๐ฉ:
โข $56m - $16m = $๐ฐ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
โข ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐: $๐ฏ๐ฒ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐จ๐จ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ผ๐
If software vendors increase prices by 25% due to AI agents, companies may be willing to pay more. A company paying $๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ง ๐ฎ๐๐๐ง for software might now pay $๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ .
Applied here, that 25% increase means $9m of the $๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฅ๐ง๐ค๐๐๐ฉ goes to software vendors, leaving companies with $๐ฎ๐ณ๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฃ๐๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐ง๐ค๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐จ.... Show More
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