Aleksandra Jensen @RainbirdFx: "Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen..."

Denmark

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen There are increasing signs that the U.S. could carry out a limited strike on Iran in the coming days. Troop movements suggest preparation, not just rhetoric. $OIL has already reacted and is trading at its highest level since late summer. If nothing happens, crude likely cools off. If escalation follows, $90+ becomes realistic — feeding directly back into inflation expectations. At the same time, something more structural is developing. The $3–4 trillion private credit market is showing early cracks. Some lenders halted withdrawals and started selling loan portfolios to raise liquidity. Defaults are creeping higher. Not dramatic — but direction matters. A meaningful part of that financing went into software and growth names, and software is clearly under pressure. Almost none of the major names trade above their 200-day average, while most semiconductor stocks still do. That divergence stands out. Institutional positioning is cautious. Equity put/call ratios remain elevated, meaning large players are hedged. Ironically, that leaves room for squeezes higher if no immediate shock hits. Rotation confirms the defensive tone. Consumer Staples outperforms Discretionary sharply. $WMT (Walmart Inc.) is rising despite softer guidance. Housing remains weak, with pending home sales near historic lows. Around 15% of U.S. jobs are tied to real estate — not a small side story. Meanwhile, hyperscalers continue aggressive AI capex, running close to 90%+ of operating cash flow. The spending is real. The monetization path is still debated. Technically, the NASDAQ is trading around 24,850, struggling to regain momentum after the recent pullback. Immediate support sits near 24,500, then 24,000. A break below increases pressure quickly. On the upside, 25,200 is the first real resistance zone that needs to be reclaimed. The S&P 500 is hovering around 6,870. Support lies near 6,820–6,830. Below that, 6,750 becomes relevant. On the upside, a sustained move back above 6,950 would improve the short-term picture and could trigger positioning-driven upside. So we have geopolitics, early credit stress, weak housing and heavy AI spending — while indices are sitting right on key technical areas. Not panic. But definitely tension beneath the surface. Clear & Simple Recap Possible U.S. action against Iran could push oil higher. Private credit shows early stress. Software weak, defensive stocks strong. Housing soft. Big investors heavily hedged. The $NSDQ100 around 24,850 and the $SPX500 near 6,870 matter because both indices are sitting right above short-term support zones after losing upside momentum. They are no longer in clean breakout mode — they are in consolidation. If 24,500 on the NASDAQ and 6,820 on the S&P break, sellers likely press harder. If resistance levels are reclaimed, positioning could fuel a squeeze higher. So it’s not about the exact number — it’s about where we are in the structure. We stay selective and disciplined. I wish you all a nice and profitable end of the week, followed by a lovely and relaxing weekend ... A www.breakingthenews.net/Article/US-futures-higher-ahead-of-GDP-data/65714551