Carlos Figueroa Vaca @cfigueroa1982: "ꜱᴘᴀᴄᴇx ɪᴘᴏ: ᴀ ʟɪǫᴜɪᴅɪᴛʏ ᴇᴠᴇɴᴛ..."

Ecuador

ꜱᴘᴀᴄᴇx ɪᴘᴏ: ᴀ ʟɪǫᴜɪᴅɪᴛʏ ᴇᴠᴇɴᴛ ꜰᴏʀ ᴇᴀʀʟʏ ɪɴᴠᴇꜱᴛᴏʀꜱ ꜱᴇᴇᴋɪɴɢ ᴀɴ ᴇxɪᴛ Elon Musk's second company could begin trading publicly on the Nasdaq in the United States on June 12, 2026, under the ticker SPCX. If this materializes, Musk would become the first CEO to simultaneously lead two public companies valued at over 1 trillion ( $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) + SpaceX). The company is seeking to raise capital from investors to manufacture and launch Starlink V3 satellites. In addition, there is a constant need to replenish its LEO constellation (9,000+ satellites). The development of Starship and orbital data centers is also required, along with expansion related to AI and Colossus, with projected capital expenditures of 119 billion (Terafab). The primary driver behind the IPO is not rocket launches, but rather Starlink: recurring revenue of 11.4 billion, more than 10 million subscribers, global scalability, and a business profile that is more technology/telecommunications-oriented than aerospace-focused. If Musk's company successfully completes its IPO, its estimated first-day trading price on Nasdaq would range between 525 and 530 per share. The final pricing range will be determined on June 11, based on the order book generated during the roadshow, with the definitive valuation confirmed at that time. June 12 will mark the first day of trading for SpaceX under the ticker SPCX. ʙᴀꜱᴇ ᴄᴀꜱᴇ ꜱᴄᴇɴᴀʀɪᴏ Starlink remains the company's primary source of revenue, continuously adding customers in the aviation and maritime sectors. Manned space launches remain frequent and efficient, helping to control costs. There is broad consensus supporting a SpaceX valuation between 1.5 trillion and 1.75 trillion. ʙᴜʟʟ ᴄᴀꜱᴇ ꜱᴄᴇɴᴀʀɪᴏ Starlink grows faster than expected and successfully expands its direct-to-device connectivity business. As scale increases, per-user costs decline significantly and the business generates substantial cash flow. There is a high probability that by 2028, SpaceX could be added to the $SPX500 , potentially resulting in 400 billion of forced passive buying. ᴄᴏɴꜱᴇʀᴠᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ꜱᴄᴇɴᴀʀɪᴏ Starlink's growth slows due to increased competition (such as Amazon Kuiper) or spectrum regulations. xAI fails to reach break-even, and annual cash burn of 14 billion forces the company to take on additional debt. SpaceX's operations and growth are subject to a number of risks inherent to its business model. As a public company, the demands for transparency and sustained profitability would add an additional layer of pressure that SpaceX has not previously faced. More than 70% of technology IPOs underperform the broader market during their first year. I never buy IPOs, and I won't be adding SPCX to my portfolio anytime soon. One consequence of the explosion of private capital is that many companies now stay private far longer than they did in previous decades. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and remained a private company until its planned 2026 IPO. That means it stayed private for approximately 24 years. This is unusually long by historical standards, considering $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) , $GOOG (Alphabet) , and $META (Meta Platforms Inc) , stayed private for 3, 6, and 8 years respectively. Venture capital, private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and late-stage investors provide enough funding that firms no longer need public markets to finance growth. As a result, much of the value creation occurs before the IPO. By the time a company finally lists, it often arrives with a multi-billion-dollar valuation, leaving public investors with far less upside than was historically available. In many cases, the IPO has become less a fundraising event and more a liquidity event for early investors seeking an exit. For public market investors, this raises an important question: if the biggest gains are captured in private markets, how much opportunity remains once a company finally reaches the stock exchange? -Carlos $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.