Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝙄𝙧𝙖𝙣–𝙐𝙎: 𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙧𝙚 𝙒𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜..."

Italy

𝙄𝙧𝙖𝙣–𝙐𝙎: 𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙧𝙚 𝙒𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙖𝙧 The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, agreed in June, has effectively collapsed in recent days. Following Iranian attacks on several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 6–7, the U.S. responded with new rounds of airstrikes. Tehran then targeted U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while President Trump publicly declared that "the ceasefire is over," although diplomatic channels remain open through mediation efforts by Oman and Qatar. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, reintroduced on July 7, remain in place. 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚'𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙟𝙤𝙧 𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩 𝙘𝙡𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜. 📈 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙀𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨: 𝙍𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 Despite the escalation, Wall Street continues to show impressive strength. The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, posting double-digit gains year-to-date, driven primarily by artificial intelligence stocks, including semiconductor companies and the Magnificent Seven. The energy sector has emerged as one of the market's strongest performers, benefiting from higher crude oil prices. Markets are treating geopolitical shocks almost like monetary policy events. The key question for investors is no longer "How long will the conflict last?" but rather "How will the Federal Reserve respond if higher energy prices reignite inflation?" Several strategists warn that current valuations may not fully reflect the risk of additional interest rate hikes during the second half of 2026, in what many describe as a highly inflationary and highly uncertain environment. 𝙂𝙤𝙡𝙙: 𝘼 𝘾𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙎𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙖𝙡 Perhaps the most surprising development is gold's behavior. Historically, gold has been the ultimate safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. This time, however, the precious metal has struggled to regain momentum. The prevailing interpretation is that investors fear rising energy costs could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a more hawkish stance. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. In other words, expectations of tighter monetary policy are currently outweighing the traditional flight-to-safety trade. 🛢️ 𝙊𝙞𝙡: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝘽𝙖𝙧𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙩 Brent crude remains the asset most directly exposed to the crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes—at the center of the geopolitical tensions. Following the latest attacks, Brent climbed to around $76 per barrel, before pulling back toward the $71–72 range as direct hostilities eased and negotiations mediated by Oman resumed. Shipping activity through the Strait remains significantly disrupted, and every new escalation immediately adds upward pressure to oil prices. ₿ 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 Bitcoin has recovered from the lows recorded a few days ago, but the road ahead remains challenging. The so-called digital gold continues to face considerable pressure, particularly as investors continue allocating capital toward AI-related equities. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its 50-period moving average, and unless it decisively breaks above key resistance around $66,000, the broader outlook remains bearish. The same applies to Ethereum and Solana. Without a convincing bullish breakout in Bitcoin, the broader crypto market is likely to remain in a downward trend. 🧩 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘽𝙞𝙜𝙜𝙚𝙧 𝙋𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 Markets are interpreting this crisis not through the traditional lens of "geopolitical risk = flight to safe-haven assets," but rather through the impact that higher energy prices could have on inflation and, ultimately, on Federal Reserve policy. The biggest concern isn't the conflict itself—it's the possibility of higher interest rates. 👀 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙒𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 𝙉𝙚𝙭𝙩 Progress in the Oman- and Qatar-mediated talks over the Strait of Hormuz. 🛢️ The July 17 deadline related to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. 🏦 The Federal Reserve's next policy signals and their implications for global financial markets. Thank you for your support! $OIL $GOLD $BTC $ETH

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.