Emmanouil Rafaletos @Manosrafas1: "$TSM just started 2026..."

Emmanouil Rafaletos · 2026-01-04T15:53:31.224Z

$TSM just started 2026 at an all-time high, but the real question isn’t the price. It’s whether the fundamentals still justify holding (or adding). Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company closed near $320, pushing its market cap above $1.6 trillion. The rally is driven by two concrete developments: the start of 2nm mass production and regulatory clarity around its China operations. For a company we hold as a sizeable core position, both matter far more than short-term price moves. Context & Key Data • Analysts expect ~21% revenue growth in 2026, largely fueled by AI accelerator demand. • Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin architecture is expected to rely on TSMC’s 3nm node next year. • $TSM has officially begun 2nm high-volume manufacturing, with early yields reportedly above expectations, a critical profitability signal. • The stock trades ~50% above its 200-day moving average, which naturally raises timing questions. At the same time, industry researchers expect price increases of 3–10% across several nodes in 2026, supporting management’s goal of keeping gross margins above 60%, exceptional for any industrial-scale manufacturer. Why 2nm Changes the Long-Term Picture 2nm production is underway at Fab 22 (Kaohsiung) and Fab 20 (Hsinchu). Early yield strength matters because: It shortens the time to peak margins It widens the moat versus Samsung and Intel It reinforces TSMC’s pricing power with top-tier customers ( $NVDA , $AAPL and others) At advanced nodes, customers don’t easily switch suppliers. Performance, reliability, and yields matter more than cost. This is why TSMC continues to dominate leading-edge logic manufacturing. Regulatory Risk. Reduced, Not Gone The U.S. granting a one-year export license for TSMC’s Nanjing fab removes a major overhang. This facility focuses on mature nodes (16nm / 28nm), not cutting-edge AI chips, but it provides: • Revenue continuity from China • Supply-chain stability • Lower operational uncertainty Geopolitical risk hasn’t disappeared, but this decision meaningfully reduces near-term downside scenarios. Risks I’m Watching • Valuation risk after a sharp rally • AI capex cycles could eventually cool • Geopolitical tensions remain an ever-present tail risk • Any unexpected yield issues at 2nm would matter My Portfolio View Personally, I’m not trading around short-term technicals here. $TSM remains a structural winner in AI infrastructure, with unmatched execution at the most advanced nodes. For my portfolio, this is a long-term compounder, not a tactical trade. I’m comfortable holding a sizeable position and reassessing only if: • Yield leadership erodes • Pricing power weakens • Or customer concentration risk materially increases If you’re following, TSMC reflects how I approach long-term tech exposure. Dominant market position, pricing power, and real cash-flow visibility. $GOOG $NSDQ100 $SPX500

Emmanouil Rafaletos

Greece

28d

$TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) just started 2026 at an all-time high, but the real question isn’t the price. It’s whether the fundamentals still justify holding (or adding). Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company closed near $320, pushing its market cap above $1.6 trillion. The rally is driven by two concrete developments: the start of 2nm mass production and regulatory clarity around its China operations. For a company we hold as a sizeable core position, both matter far more than short-term price moves. Context & Key Data • Analysts expect ~21% revenue growth in 2026, largely fueled by AI accelerator demand. • Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin architecture is expected to rely on TSMC’s 3nm node next year. • $TSM has officially begun 2nm high-volume manufacturing, with early yields reportedly above expectations, a critical profitability signal. • The stock trades ~50% above its 200-day moving average, which naturally raises timing questions. At the same time, industry researchers expect price increases of 3–10% across several nodes in 2026, supporting management’s goal of keeping gross margins above 60%, exceptional for any industrial-scale manufacturer. Why 2nm Changes the Long-Term Picture 2nm production is underway at Fab 22 (Kaohsiung) and Fab 20 (Hsinchu). Early yield strength matters because: It shortens the time to peak margins It widens the moat versus Samsung and Intel It reinforces TSMC’s pricing power with top-tier customers ( $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) , $AAPL (Apple) and others) At advanced nodes, customers don’t easily switch suppliers. Performance, reliability, and yields matter more than cost. This is why TSMC continues to dominate leading-edge logic manufacturing. Regulatory Risk. Reduced, Not Gone The U.S. granting a one-year export license for TSMC’s Nanjing fab removes a major overhang. This facility focuses on mature nodes (16nm / 28nm), not cutting-edge AI chips, but it provides: • Revenue continuity from China • Supply-chain stability • Lower operational uncertainty Geopolitical risk hasn’t disappeared, but this decision meaningfully reduces near-term downside scenarios. Risks I’m Watching • Valuation risk after a sharp rally • AI capex cycles could eventually cool • Geopolitical tensions remain an ever-present tail risk • Any unexpected yield issues at 2nm would matter My Portfolio View Personally, I’m not trading around short-term technicals here. $TSM remains a structural winner in AI infrastructure, with unmatched execution at the most advanced nodes. For my portfolio, this is a long-term compounder, not a tactical trade. I’m comfortable holding a sizeable position and reassessing only if: • Yield leadership erodes • Pricing power weakens • Or customer concentration risk materially increases If you’re following, TSMC reflects how I approach long-term tech exposure. Dominant market position, pricing power, and real cash-flow visibility. $GOOG (Alphabet) $NSDQ100 $SPX500