Catalina Norena Valderrama
Edited
Hi Everyone, During the months of July and August I prepared a series of videos on my Instagram account based on 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚π₯ π‘πžπœπžπ¬π¬π’π¨π§ 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 (πˆπ‘πˆ). You can still check them out here πŸ‘‰ www.instagram.com/investbites And as I promised back then, as the series has now finished, I am providing here a short summary of these indicators in case you were not checking them on IG or in case you just wanted to see them compiled. Please scroll to the bottom to find the summary πŸ™‚ But you may wonder, what is the importance of these types of indicators? And why should we pay any attention at all to this kind of information? Well, in Economics in general, announcements and facts tend to come after the event. For example, a recession is only declared after 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Also, economic and financial figures can sometimes even be revised retroactively as it has recently happened with the US employment numbers. That is why it is so critical for savvy investors to look at information for their decisions from multiple sources and why looking at different data with a curious mindset is key. Of course I’m not saying this is the ONLY info you should be looking at, but it can definitely complement other key economic indicators, and it can serve as an early warning system. I want to give you an example of how this worked in my case specifically. In early January 2020 I remember very vividly telling my mom and friends about this new virus in China that was spreading and causing a lot of problems… Most of the West at the time had not even heard of Covid nor were the news agencies occupied with it at all. Chinese news outlets told a different story though. Fast forward to February, I had stocked up and supplied my home with face masks 😷 and all the essentials, and for my trading account on eToro, I had loaded up on appropriate protection products… When March came, not only was I in a very calm state of mind personally, but I was also able to navigate the new situation with a steady hand. And when most people were panicking and generating big losses, I accumulated double digit returns, all while keeping a low risk score, in what is still my 2nd best month ever πŸ™‚ I am not saying to ditch information from Central Banks and other economic authorities, but to always look for ways to complement them. Developing a good nose for news and keeping a clear mind are incredibly powerful tool when it comes to investing. And as promised, here is a summary of the 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚π₯ π‘πžπœπžπ¬π¬π’π¨π§ 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬: π—Ÿπ—œπ—£π—¦π—§π—œπ—–π—ž π—œπ—‘π——π—˜π—« πŸ’„: During economic downturns, lipstick sales tend to increase, as lipstick is an affordable way for women to upscale their look and feel pretty. Lately it has evolved into the β€œThe Affordable Makeup Index (AMI)”. π—›π—”π—œπ—₯ π—•π—Ÿπ—˜π—”π—–π—›π—œπ—‘π—š πŸ‘©β€πŸ¦³: Hair bleaching is expensive, time consuming and needs to be done frequently. When the economy cools down, women tend to bleach their hair less often or go back to their natural hair colour altogether. π— π—’π—¦π—€π—¨π—œπ—§π—’ π—•π—œπ—§π—˜π—¦ 🦟: When times are difficult more homes are poorly maintained or vacant, creating the perfect breeding ground for bugs, indirectly increasing the number of mosquito bites. π—₯π—˜π—–π—˜π—¦π—¦π—œπ—’π—‘ π— π—˜π—‘π—§π—œπ—’π—‘π—¦ π—œπ—‘π——π—˜π—« πŸ“‰: The more the media talks about a recession, the more likely it is that public sentiment, business decisions, and even economic activity will be affected. π— π—˜π—‘β€™π—¦ π—¨π—‘π——π—˜π—₯π—ͺπ—˜π—”π—₯ π—œπ—‘π——π—˜π—« (π— π—¨π—œ) 🩲: It is based on the idea that sales of men’s underwear drop during a recession. Not because men no longer need underwear, but because it’s one of the few items that they can postpone buying without anyone noticing. On a sidenote, Alan Greenspan πŸ‘΄ was a big fan of this index. π—§π—›π—˜ π—–π—’π—™π—™π—˜π—˜-𝗔𝗧-π—›π—’π— π—˜ π—œπ—‘π——π—˜π—« β˜•: It tracks declines in cafΓ© visits and rises in at-home coffee sales (pods, instant coffee, espresso machines). It often signals that people are cutting back on daily luxuries. Wishing you all a great Tuesday! Catalina $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETN) $GOLD $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )
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