$META (Meta Platforms Inc) ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น (๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ)
Copiers,
Last time I shared my insights on META was in November 2025. Since then, many developments have occurred. The Capex Supercycle for Mag7 is now approaching a parabolic trajectory, making an update to the model essential. Letโs dive in.
๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐:
* Explicit average 5Y/5Y growth @ 17%/10%
* Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6%
* Adj. EBITDA Margin expansion from 48% to 52% in the terminal year.
* WACC @ 10%.
* Adj. EBITDA exit multiple of 11
* Tax rate 20% - in line with historical marginal rate
* The input that drives reinvestment is linearly regressed from current levels closer to the Software (Entertainment) average rate of 1.67 in year 10
๐๐ถ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต (๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ ๐)
Historical revenue growth has been highly cyclical but strong over the long run, averaging 25% on a 10Y CAGR basis. We have seen extraordinary rates in 2016-2018, but not anymore. It decelerated sharply in 2022 (flat YoY) due to the digital ad downturn and iOS privacy changes (ATT impact), before rebounding in 2023โ2025 to roughly mid-to-high teens growth (10โ20% range) as ad demand recovered and efficiency improved. Overall, on a blended basis, Metaโs revenue CAGR sits within clear regime shifts: hypergrowth phase โ post-ATT compression โ recovery driven by cost discipline and AI-driven ad performance gains.
Consensus expectations for the next 5 years are within mid-teens CAGR range, depending on how aggressively we model AI monetization and ad cycle strength. I am using a constant 17% for the first explicit five-year plan, regressing afterward towards 10% average.
Revenue full forecast.png
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
My price target for Meta is 774$. Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 21% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within 3 years, it will generate 8% in annual alpha. On the other side, bull case shows 1,374. While not impossible, it only works if a few key drivers actually show up:
* AI monetization is fully priced in
* Reels monetization gap is closing
* A high standard of operating leverage + cost discipline is maintained
* WhatsApp monetization optionality is still undervalued
* Capital allocation tailwind if strong FCF is directed towards share buybacks
* Multiple expansion for whatever reason
* Strong competitive moat is maintained and even strengthened
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฐ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
I am maintaining my small Meta position and am prepared to increase exposure if the price dips below $ 550. Although this doesnโt seem like a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity, it remains a great company trading below its intrinsic value. Still a rare setup these days.
Keep in mind that this is an estimate - just like any DCF model. Iโm not claiming perfection, but I do trust these calculations to guide my own investments. Hopefully, they can help inform yours as well. If you choose to share it online, please credit my page as the source.
___________________________________
๐ซ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐: This post is for informational and educational purposes only. I own shares in META and can buy/sell them at any time after this post is published. Not financial advice. Do your own research.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Tue Jun 09 2026 11:49:16 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
