๐๐๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ ๐ง๐๐๐ก๐ก๐ฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ก๐๐
It's been a while since my last update so I wanted to share my toughts where we are in the cycle.
Markets feel strange right now. Inflation is falling. Rate cuts are being discussed. Liquidity headlines appear almost weekly. And yet equities are grinding, crypto remains weak, and rallies struggle to hold.
That disconnect isnโt random. Itโs typical of a late-stage phase in a long market cycle.
When markets stop reacting positively to โgoodโ news, it usually means expectations are already priced in and confidence is fading. Buyers havenโt disappeared, theyโve become selective.
What weโre seeing right now is rotation. One of the biggest misconceptions at the moment is that money is leaving the system. It isnโt.
Liquidity is still present, but itโs choosing where to sit:
- Large US equities
- AI and technology leaders
- Precious metals
What itโs avoiding for now:
- Smaller, speculative assets
- Weak balance sheets
- Crypto assets without strong conviction behind them
This is why $BTC and altcoins remain under pressure even while global liquidity measures stay elevated. Money doesnโt move everywhere at once, especially when risk appetite is low.
Crypto in a late-cycle phase
Crypto is behaving exactly how late-cycle assets usually behave. Bitcoin is well off its highs and recent rallies have been weak. Thatโs uncomfortable, but it isnโt unusual.
Historically:
- Crypto tops early
- It underperforms while equities continue grinding
- Relief rallies fade
- Sentiment turns negative long before a durable low forms
Right now, weโre seeing:
- Extreme fear readings
- Falling volumes
- Rising stablecoin dominance
- Weak closes rather than aggressive buying
These arenโt signals of strength. Theyโre signals of de-risking and exhaustion.
This phase doesnโt mark opportunity immediately. It marks the process of moving toward it, we just need to remain patient.
... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Fri Aug 07 2026 12:38:10 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
