Hugo Angelo Lucien Manenti
Dear all, As mentioned yesterday, I launched a Substack. The first post is a $IWG.L (IWG PLC) deep dive. You can find it here: tinyurl.com/IWG-office-etoro TL;DR: IWG is the largest global flex operator - orders of magnitude larger than WeWork. It has massive scale advantages. The market still values it through the old lens (lease-heavy, cyclical, balance-sheet risk). But IWG has been steadily shifting toward asset-light growth via management deals: partners fund the capex, IWG earns management fees. At a valuation of only 6x EBITDA, IWG only needs to execute for us to win. In my view, three things need to happen: - The M&F pipeline needs to convert into open, full centres for fees to accrue. - Unit economics need hold at scale: occupancy / pricing need to be resilient enough that partners keep coming back for more sites. - Legacy owned/leased centres must keep improving margins so the “old IWG” stops dominating the narrative. Although it doesn't need it to work - if the business mix keeps moving in the right direction, the risk profile improves, and the valuation multiple should improve. I’ve put the full write-up on Substack - link below. Please let me know your thoughts, and if you like the write-up, make sure to subscribe - it's free.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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