Filip Brnadic @PROJECT10X: "To my copiers: I have already..."

Australia

To my copiers: I have already spoken about my confidence that the lows are in across several previous posts. Today, I want to discuss market dynamics. ~3 weeks ago, the crypto market gave folks the opportunity to allocate to BTC ~$80K, when I said "we were closer to the bottom than the top". ~2 weeks ago, the market offered another opportunity ~$85K, when I suggested "the low was in". Today, the market is offering allocations ~$90K. This process will continue all the way to new ATHs. As people slowly come to terms with the idea that "the bull run is not over", they also begin to realise that the market does not care about the entry they want. Eventually, they allocate on whatever pullback the market gives them. That is how bullish market structure forms (hint: it's already formed). Now, as for why I am so confident the low is in, beyond macro and geopolitics being bullish, which I have covered ad nauseam. From my perspective, we have already seen as much of a bear market as was realistically possible in this macro and geopolitical environment. We saw: ➡️ BTC pull back -36%, despite widespread expectations throughout 2024 and 2025 for a MAXIMUM -50% drawdown in a risk off, macro driven bear market. ➡️ SUI pull back -77%, despite being widely considered a top-tier L1 outside the majors like ETH and SOL. For context, ETH pulled back ~82% in 2022 during aggressive rate hikes, surging inflation, Fed QT, and a strengthening USD. ➡️ BONK pull back -86%, noting it is considered a top-tier meme coin (read sh**coin) for this cycle among degens. ➡️ DOT pull back -84%, noting it is irrelevant in this bull market. Could prices have gone lower than that? Not meaningfully. Not in this environment. Not from my perspective. When you line up the bullish macro and geopolitical backdrop, and then think clearly about where to from here, especially heading into midterms within a (key word) "positive" macro regime, the answer becomes glaringly obvious to me. Higher. That is why, as many of my Substack readers already know, I have been allocating any and all additional capital and income over the past month, including yesterday. I could not be clearer than this. For the record, my thesis is invalidated if the macro + geopolitical landscape turns sour. Right now, we are 72% bullish macro according to my RORO tool. This is HIGH. Anything <50% invalidates my thesis. Why? Because, per the figure below, a macro reading <50% is historically a poor environment for risk assets. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ✌🏽 Disclaimer: Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results $BTC $AUS200 $NSDQ100 $UK100 $GER40

5 Mentioned

BTC

Bitcoin

AUS200

NSDQ100

UK100

GER40

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