📢 Portfolio update — 24 October 2025
I’ve made some important moves to strengthen safety and flexibility in a market that, frankly, feels far too hot right now.
Recent moves:
I’ve sold the entire position in First Solar (FSLR).
It’s an excellent company, with flawless execution and long-term visibility, but at this point, the risk outweighs the potential reward.
The share price is sitting at the key 2023 support level, around $230,
after peaking recently at $246 and dropping to $217 in just two weeks — almost 15% volatility.
On top of that, it reports earnings next week, and the setup is 50/50:
it could rise or fall by 20%.
And this isn’t a casino — it’s investing.
From a cycle perspective, the market is already pricing in profits for 2028–2030, when the 45X tax credit will start to phase out (it remains in full effect until 2029).
That incentive has been the main driver of recent record margins,
and the market has already priced it in.
I believe this was the right time to exit with consolidated gains.
💰 Current portfolio situation
With this move, the portfolio now holds:
→ 7% in cash,
→ 21% in bonds,
meaning 28% of the portfolio is in a safe position, ready to deploy when attractive opportunities appear.
🔎 Next steps
For now, that 7% in cash will stay in reserve.
I have several orders lined up, including a potential entry in ICLR if it reaches my target level.
I’m also considering buying gold, but only if it corrects towards the 3,800–3,700 range, with a target level around 3,760 (roughly -14% from the 4,380 peak).
Why gold?
I’ll explain in more detail if I decide to buy, but in short, I see it as a hedge against the dollar, inflation and the historic US debt level.
Everything suggests rates will be cut before inflation is fully under control, and if in 2026 a new, Trump-aligned Fed chair takes office,
we could easily see more liquidity, lower rates and a potential inflation rebound — a scenario that has historically benefited gold.
And no, I’m not buying Bitcoin.
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same:
when the market falls, Bitcoin falls with it;
gold, on the other hand, remains the true store of value.
In short, I prefer to consolidate gains in an overheated environment, maintain flexibility and stay ready for the opportunities ahead.
Sometimes, doing nothing and waiting is the best strategy.
I’ll keep you updated on any further moves.
Best regards and have a great day.
—
I’m Luis Iñigo, an AI developer and investor with over five years of experience. My approach focuses on balancing returns, risk control, and a long-term vision. I share analysis and decisions with full transparency through my Popular Investor profile.
These are my personal opinions and not investment advice. Capital is at risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
$FSLR (First Solar, Inc.)$GOLD$BTC$SPX500$NSDQ100... Show More
Not the worst point to exit, although I have to say that the renewables energy sector is one of the few where the future AI profits are not priced in yet. But as you said, not unlikely that it falls below 200 again once a rate cut is not approved, tariffs are on the table again or "solar laws"... Show More
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Thu Dec 11 2025 00:14:53 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
