Grimsteed
@Grimsteed shared a post via Mimi Ho
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Mimi Ho
Australia
3m
Edited
๐–๐ž๐ž๐ค๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐Ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ž๐ฐ: ๐ƒ๐š๐ญ๐š ๐š๐ง๐ ๐‚๐ซ๐ฒ๐ฉ๐ญ๐จโ€จโ€จ I have the ๐“๐‹๐ƒ๐‘ (summary) below for those who canโ€™t digest all this information, however I do recommend reading it all for context. With the government shutdown still in play and jobs data on hold, key events on my radar this week: โ€จโ†’Wednesday: FOMC minutes โ†’Thursday: Powell speechโ€จโ€จ ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐Œ๐ฒ ๐Ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ž๐ฐ ๐‘๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฉ Last week I mentioned:โ€จ โ†’ We may see a relief rally and if this was strong then the bull cycle continuesโ€จ โ†’ BTC dominance and USDT charts remain bearish but could start ticking up temporarilyโ€จ โ†’ ETH to flip 4100 into supportโ€จ Since then, BTC hit a new ATH of 125k which is great to see. So the question on everyoneโ€™s mind now is: whatโ€™s next? I will outline what I see based on my data and research. ๐ˆ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐š๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ญ๐ž Before I get into the below, I would like to emphasise that: โ€จ โ†’ Nothing goes up in a straight line. โ€จโ†’ I provide lower timeframe analysis for traders and higher timeframe outlook for investors. โ†’ I focus on BTC and ETH price for market direction overall. $BTC We have high levels of liquidity sitting up around ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“๐ค-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ•๐ค (a lot of traders trying to short which is no surprise), so a spike there is possible. However, a lot of liquidity is also building below as traders FOMO in this rally and Iโ€™m seeing a lot of high leveraged long liquidations between ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ–๐ค-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ค zone (traders opening up 25x-100x long positions expecting price to go up). Historically, when looking at BTC on the ๐๐š๐ข๐ฅ๐ฒ timeframe, retraces have been quite shallow during strong parabolic moves (I believe we are at the start of the next parabolic move for BTC). Thatโ€™s why Iโ€™m eyeing that 118k-121k range for a pullback, with around ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐ค as a psychological support level. Breaking below these I would re-assess and look at 115k-117k which would still be healthy if this parabolic move was to be confirmed. ๐๐ž๐ฑ๐ญ ๐๐“๐‚ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐š๐ซ๐ ๐ž๐ญ โฌ†๏ธ My next target upwards for BTC would be around the ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ‘๐ŸŽ๐คโ€“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ’๐ŸŽ๐ค levels. Not numbers I plucked out of the air but based on (for those interested in some TAs) the fibonacci extension from the 98k low, targeting the golden pocket between 1.272 and 1.618. ๐๐“๐‚ ๐ƒ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž & ๐”๐’๐ƒ๐“ ๐ƒ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž BTC Dominance is ticking up as expected but overall the dominance chart remains bearish. I wouldnโ€™t rule out a target of around 62% where it forms a lower high before the downtrend of dominance continues. This is the same for USDT dominance. As these dominances go โฌ‡๏ธ Altcoins will โฌ†๏ธ. $ETH Flipped 4100 level as support. The significant level Iโ€™ll be watching next is a breakout of the 5k level, which then itโ€™s likely party time for alts. Won't happen overnight but it is what I expect once BTC stops stealing the spotlight. โ€จ๐๐ฌ๐ฒ๐œ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐จ๐ ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐…๐ฎ๐ง๐๐š๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ฌ Retail isnโ€™t here yet, euphoria isnโ€™t here yet. This is why Iโ€™ve stayed long term bullish and believe the top was not in. ETFs are still to come, adding another layer of fundamental strength to this cycle and alts. ๐–๐ก๐ž๐ง ๐€๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐จ๐ง? This is the ultimate question. As I mentioned in last weekโ€™s Market Buzz livestream, we have been seeing narrative seasons rather than a broad altseason. Itโ€™s about strong tokens (battle tested tokens and even the old dino coins) paired with strong narratives. โ€จโ€จFor example $ZEC, which I wrote about previously, is an older โ€œdinoโ€ coin that has been a part of the recent privacy narrative. My high conviction investments remain as is while I begin to hunt for strong narratives for my community. Again, Iโ€™m not saying that the major altcoins will not rise along with BTC but this version of altseason will be more so โ€˜Narrative Seasonโ€™ โ†’ AI, Gaming, Utility, Tokenisation, privacy and so on. ๐–๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ˆโ€™๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐  I will begin to add to my high conviction Alts that have not run. This includes but not limited to $XRP $ADA LINK AVAX SUI ONDO XLM FET CRV $HBAR ๐“๐‹๐ƒ๐‘ โ€จโ†’ Bullish. โ†’ Retail isnโ€™t here, euphoria isnโ€™t here, ETFs incoming. โ†’ Ideally I want to see BTC retrace to 118kโ€“121k, with 120k as key psychological support. Even below to 115k-117k is healthy. โ†’ Next upside target for BTC sits around 130kโ€“140k based on my TAs. โ†’ BTC and USDT dominance could tick up a little more but remain bearish overall = good for alts. โ†’ Alts will continue to do nothing for now overall as dominances remain steady. โ†’ I will continue to add to my high conviction altcoin positions. โ†’ This cycleโ€™s โ€œAltseasonโ€ is more of a โ€œNarrative Seasonโ€. ๐‚๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ โ€จI share my insights in real time and in more detail within my private community. Message me on LinkedIn if you wish to join. Have a great week ahead and I will continue to provide updates over the week. ๐Ÿ‘ฉ๐Ÿปโ€๐Ÿ’ปโ˜•๏ธ (The above is my opinion based on my analysis and research and not financial advice)
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